000 AXNT20 KNHC 221025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force each night just offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft within the strongest winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through the forecast period. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 03N16W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N21W and along the Equator to near 47W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are seen S of the trough from 02N to 04N between 07W-14W and within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 17W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure system positioned between the Leeward Islands and Bermuda extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The associated very dry environment supported by dry air loft as well continues to suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms across the basin. The pressure gradient has tightened over the western Gulf due to lowering surface pressures in Texas and northern Mexico. This has induced fresh to strong southerly winds west of about 90W. Seas over these waters are in the range of 5-7 ft, except for higher seas of 7-10 ft over the far NW Gulf from 26N to 28N between 95W-97W. Fresh to strong SE winds also exist off the northern Yucatan Peninsula, mainly south of 24N and between 87W-91W. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds and slight seas prevail. Light and moist southerly flow over relatively cooler water has created areas of fog, some of the dense type, along and just offshore the Gulf coastal plains from Alabama eastward to the Florida panhandle, including Big Bend region. Similar favorable conditions for marine fog to develop are again expected tonight. Areas of smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are confined to the the far southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure that extends from the western Atlantic to the eastern Gulf will change little over the next few days. Fresh to strong southerly winds in the western Gulf will increase to strong to near gale- force today as they quickly expand eastward to the central Gulf. Peak seas are forecast to reach to 11 ft during the afternoon. These winds and seas are ahead of a frontal system that will stall across Texas. High pressure and associated fresh return flow is expected across most of the basin Thu, before diminishing to moderate speeds Fri. However, fresh return flow will persist on Fri in the SW Gulf and off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected across the basin Sat through Sun night as the western extension of Atlantic high pressure will reach westward along 30N. Nocturnal fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected along the northern Yucatan Peninsula through the period as the Yucatan Peninsula trough moves offshore each evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on the ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds continue to affect most of the Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras as confirmed by an overnight ASCAT data passes. Near gale to gale-force NE to E are occurring off the northwest coast of Colombia as described in the Special Features section. Outside of the Gale Warning area, seas are 5-9 ft. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds along with seas of2-3 ft are present in the lee waters of Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture, with possible isolated showers are mainly overt the eastern Caribbean and over sections of the central and western Carribbean S of 17N. For the forecast, a Atlantic high pressure ridge along 26N will help maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Sat as high pressure reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. The coverage area of these winds is expected to diminish beginning Sat night. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia each night through Sat. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will change little through late Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds in the Yucatan Channel are expected to continue through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and a storm system south of Nova Scotia has induced fresh to strong SW winds north of 28N and between 55W-70W. Seas related to these winds are in the 6-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the deep tropical S of about 20N. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are located off NW Africa N of a from north of 25N and east of 19W along with seas in the range of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, an E to W ridge axis along 26N will weaken this morning, then reform NE of the Bahamas by this evening. The western part end of a cold front will move southeastward across the NE forecast waters this afternoon and night, and reach along 22N by late Thu. High pressure behind the front will act to freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N during this period. Looking ahead, large NW swell and near gale-force NW winds are possible on Sat across the NE waters associated with another cold front. The southern part of a cold front will brush the NE forecast waters Sun and Sun night. Otherwise, rather quiet conditions are expected during this time as high pressure settles in over the area. $$ Aguirre