067 AXNT20 KNHC 211726 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force each night just offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft within the strongest winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through the forecast period. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high pressure is centered just offshore Marco Island, Florida. Ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico, with light to gentle return flow and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the high pressure will slide E into the Atlantic through Wed. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop across the W Gulf today, increasing to strong to near gale-force speeds tonight and Wed over the NW and north-central Gulf. Peak seas to 11 ft are forecast in the highest winds through Wed evening. These winds and seas are ahead of a frontal system that will stall across Texas. High pressure and fresh return flow is expected across most of the basin Thu, before diminishing to moderate speeds Fri. However, fresh return flow will persist on Fri in the SW Gulf and off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected across the basin Sat and Sat night as the western extension of Atlantic high pressure will reach westward along 30N. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the continuing GALE WARNING for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure over South America continues to produce fresh trades in the central and SW Caribbean south of 14N outside of the GALE WARNING area. Seas in this region are 8-11 ft. Trades are moderate in the central Caribbean north of 14N with 4-7 ft seas. In the E Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the NW Caribbean, trades are light and gentle with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridge along 26N will help sustain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Wed, then become strong Wed night through Fri as high pressure reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia each night through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba Wed through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds will begin in the Yucatan Channel tonight and last through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The lack of active weather in the tropical Atlantic indicates to this meteorologist that winter is coming to an end and spring is upon us! 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 27N60W; no other features are analyzed south of 31N. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, except in the far NW discussion waters where W winds are fresh to strong, and offshore Mauritania in the E Atlantic where NE winds are fresh to strong. Seas everywhere are 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the E to W ridge axis along 26N will weaken through tonight, then reorganize NE of the Bahamas Wed. Fresh to strong SW to W winds across the northern waters should continue through early Wed as a frontal system sweeps eastward across the NW Atlantic. The western end of that front will move across the forecast NE waters Wed afternoon and night, and reach along 22N late Thu. High pressure behind the front will act to freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N during this period. Looking ahead, large NW swell is possible on Sat across the NE waters associated with another cold front. $$ Mahoney