369 AXNT20 KNHC 201806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Feb 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure gradient, that exists between strong high pressure that is well to the north of the area, relatively lower surface pressure that is in Colombia and in the far south central Caribbean Sea, will continue to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea offshore Colombia during the daytime hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force, and the sea heights are forecast to reach 14 feet, during the late night and early morning hours just offshore NW Colombia. This weather pattern is expected to continue through the rest of the week. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W, to 02N20W, to the Equator along 32W. The ITCZ continues from 32W at the Equator, to the Equator along 44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong generally is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 27N82W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. The wind speeds are mainly gentle. Some moderate to isolated fresh winds are in the SE corner, and in the west central Gulf, and on the NE side of the high pressure center. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet in the SW half of the area. The sea heights have been ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet in the NE half of the area. 1022 mb high pressure is centered over the north central Gulf, and will shift southeastward to the southeastern Gulf by this evening, then to well E of the Gulf by Wed. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop across the western half of the Gulf on Tue, then strengthen to strong to near gale-force Tue night and Wed over the NW and north-central Gulf, ahead of a frontal system that will stall across Texas. High pressure along with fresh return flow is expected across most of the basin Thu, then over the western section and also over the central section S of 26N from Thu night through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are within 150 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 78W. Strong NE winds are elsewhere in the central one-third of the area. Fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the western one-third of the area. The sea heights range: from 7 feet to 10 feet between the Mona Passage and 80W, from 5 to 7 feet elsewhere from the Mona Passage eastward, and from 4 feet to 6 feet from 80W westward. Rainshowers are possible, in the areas of scattered to broken low level to middle level clouds, that are spread throughout the entire area. Atlantic high pressure ridge along 26N-27N will help sustain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through tonight, then across the south-central portion of the basin through early Thu. Afterward, a new area of high pressure that will build over the western Atlantic in the wake of a cold front will expand fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia at night through the period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba Wed afternoon through Fri night. Fresh to strong trade winds and high seas prevailing east of the Leeward Islands will diminish today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front is along 31N50W, to 28N60W 28N66W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 25N northward from 50W westward. Fresh NE winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet in long-period NW to N swell. A surface trough is along 41W from 19N to 32N. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong is from 10N northward from 41W eastward. Fresh to strong N to NE winds, and sea heights that range from 9 feet to 10 feet, are from 20N to 25N between 50W and 53W. An upper level trough is about 420 nm to the east of the 41W surface trough. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are from 21N to 28N and between 31W and the 41W surface trough. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are from 20N southward between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate wind speeds or slower, and moderate sea heights, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front has dissipated across the NE waters, leaving a weakening high pressure ridge extending E to W along 27N to the NW Bahamas. This pressure pattern will maintain fresh to strong trade winds S of 22N today, then fresh winds tonight through Wed, as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong E winds are expected over the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola from Wed afternoon through the end of the week, with winds seeping through the Windward Passage during this time. The tail-end of a developing cold front is forecast to emerge from NE Florida today, and affect the northern offshore waters with fresh to strong SW to W winds tonight through early Wed. $$ mt/ss