000 AXNT20 KNHC 191850 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between the 1031 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is near 37N70W, and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in NW Colombia, will support strong to near-gale force NE to ENE wind speeds, during the daytime hours, and gale-force wind speeds during the late night and early morning hours, in the south-central Caribbean Sea, just to the north of Colombia, during most of the upcoming week. The sea heights will be ranging from 12 feet to 14 feet, with the fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noss.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A surface trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N, to 12W. The ITCZ continues from 05N12W, to 04N22W, crossing the Equator along 28W, to 02S38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are in parts of the SW Gulf, after the cold front of the last few days exited the area late last night. The sea heights that are in the SW corner are ranging from 5 feet to 8 feet. A 1026 mb high pressure is in SE Louisiana. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Expect light to gentle variable wind speeds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the rest of the area. Fresh N to NE winds prevail over portions of the SW Gulf in the wake of an old cold front that moved SE of the basin late Sat. These winds will diminish today. Surface high pressure and associated ridging will develop across the Gulf today providing mainly light to gentle variable winds basin-wide through Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop across the western half of the Gulf on Tue ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas Wed morning. These winds are forecast to reach strong to near gale force speeds Tue night into Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning. A surface ridge is associated with a 1031 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is near 37N70W. The ridge passes through the northern Caribbean Sea. The ridge continues to support fresh to strong trade winds in most of the area. The exceptions are in the Gulf of Honduras, and in the SE Caribbean Sea, where moderate to locally fresh winds are being reported. The sea heights have been 7 feet to 9 feet, in the areas of fresh to strong wind speeds. The sea heights have been ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet in the SW Caribbean Sea near Colombia. High pressure centered SE of Bermuda will weaken today and dissipate tonight as a cold front continues to move SE across the western Atlantic and northern Bahamas. Strong high pressure N of the front is moving eastward into the Atlantic offshore of the mid Atlantic coast and will help sustain fresh to strong easterly trades in the central and great portion of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba most of the forecast period. Winds will pulse nightly to gale force off the coast of Colombia through Thu night. High seas in mixed N and NE swell across the tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon night. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds prevailing east of the Leeward Islands will diminish to fresh speeds tonight through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N58W to 29N62W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 29N62W, to 27N70W, through the central Bahamas, through NW Cuba, to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 25N northward from 54W westward. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 37N70W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold front/dissipating stationary front northward and northwestward. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 23N42W. The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in mixed NE and E swell, from 20N northward between 35W and 50W. Fresh to strong winds have been within 390 nm of the low pressure center in the N semicircle. Residual large and long-period mixed NE to E swell, that is associated with the 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 23N42W, will maintain sea heights to range from 8 feet to 11 feet in most of the subtropical central Atlantic waters through Mon. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 19N to 28N between 30W and 42W. Weakening high pressure is centered across the NE waters and to the south of the front. This pressure pattern will maintain fresh to strong trade winds S of 22N through late Mon, except N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage that will continue through the forecast period. Strong high pressure building north of the ront will produce fresh NE winds behind the front today, and gradually veer to the E and diminish through this evening as the front stalls before dissipating. The tail of a new cold front is forecast to emerge from NE Florida on Mon morning and affect the northern offshore waters with moderate to fresh SW to W winds through early Wed. $$ mt