000 AXNT20 KNHC 191057 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Feb 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the mid-Atlantic high and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale force winds at daytime, and gale-force at night in the south-central Caribbean, just north of Colombia most of this coming week. Seas under the strongest winds will range from 12 to 14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noss.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... There is no monsoon trough in the Atlantic Basin based on the latest analysis. The ITCZ extends from 03N13W to 00N28W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 07N between 20W and 50W, and from 00N to 05N between 00W and 17W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds prevail over portions of the SW Gulf in the wake of a former cold front that moved out of the basin late Sat. Seas in the Bay of Campeche are in the 5 to 8 ft range. A 1028 mb high is centered in the Florida Panhandle and extends a ridge across most of the basin, thus supporting light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, enhanced winds in the Bay of Campeche will diminish today as the cold front E of the area continues to move further away from the region. Surface high pressure and associated ridging will develop across the Gulf today, providing mainly light to gentle variable winds basin-wide through Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop across the western half of the Gulf on Tue ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas Wed morning. These winds are forecast to reach strong to near gale force speeds Tue night into Wed and expand to portions of the eastern basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section regarding an ongoing Gale Warning. Surface ridging associated with a 1026 mb high pressure centered NE of the area extends southward across the northern Caribbean and continues to support fresh to strong trade winds across most of the basin, except for the Gulf of Honduras and the SE Caribbean where moderate to locally fresh winds are being reported. Seas in the regions of fresh to strong speeds are in the 7 to 9 ft range while in the SW Caribbean near Colombia seas are in the 10 to 13 ft range. For the forecast, the high pressure ESE of Bermuda will weaken today and dissipate tonight as a cold front continues to move SE across the western Atlantic. A new center of high pressure will develop near 27N60W on Mon in the wake of the cold front and will sustain fresh to strong easterly trades in the central and great portion of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of central and eastern Cuba most of the forecast period. Winds will pulse nightly to gale force off the coast of Colombia through Thu night. High seas in mixed N and NE swell across the tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon night. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds prevailing east of the Leeward Islands will diminish to fresh speeds tonight through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging associated with a 1026 mb high centered near 30N54W extends SW across the Bahamas. A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N59W to southern Andros Island and then stalls across western Cuba. Farther east, in the central subtropical waters, a 1014 mb low near 23N42W maintains 8 to 11 ft seas in mixed NE and E swell, and fresh to strong winds within 390 nm N semicircle of the low center. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail S of 22N through late Mon, except N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage that will continue through the forecast period. Fresh NE winds will prevail behind the cold front, then gradually veer to the E and diminish through this evening as the front stalls before dissipating. The tail of a cold front is forecast to emerge from NE Florida on Mon morning and affect the northern offshore waters with moderate to fresh SW to W winds through early Wed. Otherwise, residual large, long-period mixed NE to E swell associated with the 1014 mb low near 23N42W will maintain 8 to 11 ft seas across most of the subtropical central Atlantic waters through Mon. $$ Ramos