000 AXNT20 KNHC 182310 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale force winds at daytime, and gale-force at night in the south-central Caribbean through at least Wed. Seas under the strongest winds will range from 12 to 14 ft. Central Atlantic Large Swell: Large long-period northerly swell behind an occluded low and associated front continue to generate seas of 11 to 13 ft north of 25N between 40W and 50W through tonight. Please latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A surface trough is analyzed inland over Africa to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends westward from 03N15W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and S of 09N between 16W and 49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 25N80W to 22N88W. Fresh to strong NW winds prevail across Veracruz offshore waters to the central Bay of Campeche, while moderate to fresh NE winds are noted elsewhere. Seas S of 27N and W of 85W currently range between 8 to 13 ft, being the highest in the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the front will diminish through Sun. Surface high pressure and associated ridging will develop across the gulf on Sun providing mainly light to gentle variable winds basin-wide through Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop across the western half of the gulf on Tue ahead of the next frontal system, becoming strong Tue night through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on an ongoing Gale Warning for the SW Caribbean. The subtropical ridge extends to the northern half of the Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern half of the basin, except for moderate to fresh winds in the NW Caribbean. A shearline extends along 15N and E of 69W. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted S of the shearline. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the E, SW and central Caribbean, except 11 to 14 ft in the offshore waters of Colombia. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are elsewhere. For the forecast, the Bermuda high will weaken through Mon as a cold front moves SE across the western Atlantic, with reinforcing high pressure building behind it, and due north of the Caribbean basin. This pattern will sustain fresh to strong easterly trades across most of the basin through Mon, including the Windward Passage and lee of eastern Cuba. Winds will pulse nightly to gale force off the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. High seas in mixed N and NE swell across the tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon night. Strong trade winds prevailing east of the Leeward Islands will diminish to fresh speeds Sun night through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the large northerly swell and rough seas. A cold front extends from 31N69W to 25N80W. Fresh to strong N to NW winds and and seas to 10 ft prevail in the wake of the front. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front N of 29N and extending as far as 63W. Surface ridging dominate the waters ahead of the front, which is anchored by a 1026 mb high centered to the E of Bermuda. In the central Atlantic, the Special Features occluded low is centered near 26N42W with cold front extending from the low to 16N46W, then a shearline begins from that point to 15N61W. Fresh ENE winds and sea heights to 11 ft prevail N of the shearline, while moderate NE winds and seas to 10 ft are noted S of the shearline. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail S of 22N through early Mon as the high drifts NE and weakens. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail behind the front, then gradually veer to the E and diminish through Sun evening as the front reaches from 30N55W to just N of the NW Bahamas, and then stalls. Weak high pressure will then prevail through early next week. $$ ERA