000
AXNT20 KNHC 171053
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the 
subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure over northwestern 
Colombia will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale winds during 
the days, and gale-force winds for the nights in the south-central
Caribbean Sea, offshore from Colombia through midweek next week. 
Seas under the strongest winds will range from 11 to 14 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Northerly near-gale to gale-force
winds behind a strong cold front extending from SE Louisiana to
Veracruz, Mexico will continue to affect the basin as the front
continues to shift ESE throught tonight. Gale force winds are
ongoing across the Veracruz offshore waters and will shift to the
Bay of Campeche today. Seas to 17 ft are forecast to build in the 
Bay of Campeche today with the strongest winds. Conditions will 
gradually improve at the west-central Gulf late tonight, and the Bay
of Campeche Sat morning.

For both Gale Warnings above, please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and 
Offshore Waters Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 
02N15W to 02N33W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is from
04S to 07N between 12W and 51W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a 
Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends from SE Louisiana near 29N90W SW to 
Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near gale force northerly winds follow
the front, except for gale force winds across the Veracruz 
offshore waters where seas are 12 ft. Gentle to moderate SE winds
and seas to 6 ft are ahead of the front.  

For the forecast, gale force winds will spread to the Bay of 
Campeche into tonight. The front will exit the basin early on Sat 
and winds and seas in the wake of the front will diminish Sat 
night. Surface high pressure and associated ridging will develop 
across the gulf on Sun providing mainly light to gentle variable 
winds basin-wide through Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE winds 
will develop across the western half of the gulf on Tue ahead of 
the next frontal system. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a 
Gale Warning.

The Bermuda high of 1029 mb centered near 31N59W extends a ridge
southward into the northern Caribbean, thus tightening the
pressure gradient in the region and supporting fresh to strong
trade winds S of 20N and E of 82W as well as in the Gulf of
Honduras where seas have built to 9 ft. In the central and eastern
Caribbean, seas are 7 to 10 ft, except for 11 to 14 ft off the
coast of Colombia. Otherwise, moderate to fresh ESE winds are in
the remainder NW Caribbean with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge centered north of the 
area will sustain fresh to strong easterly trades across most of 
the basin E of 82W through the forecast period, including the 
Windward Passage. Winds will pulse nightly to gale force off the 
coast of Colombia through early next week. Northerly swell across 
the tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon night. Strong trade 
winds east of the Leeward Islands will diminish to fresh speeds 
Sat night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between a shear line extending across the
central Atlantic into the Puerto Rico southern adjacent waters and
the Bermuda high continue to support a broad area of fresh to
strong winds over the SW N Atlantic waters S of 26N where seas are
in the 8 to 11 ft range. Fresh to locally strong S winds are
ongoing off the NE coast of Florida ahead of a strong cold front
forecast to enter the region later today. A former cold front in
the central subtropical waters is stalling between the Bermuda
high and a second ridge over the NE forecast waters. Scattered
moderate convection associated with the front is N of 21N between
35W and 45W. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong NE winds are
between the Cape Verde Islands and the W coast of Africa. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda high will allow the 
continuation of fresh to strong winds S of 25N into Mon. A cold 
front will enter the waters off NE Florida late today. This will 
support strong winds ahead and behind the frontal boundary, N of 
28N, today through Sat as the frontal boundary moves eastward.

$$
Ramos