000 AXNT20 KNHC 170018 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Feb 17 2023 Corrected Caribbean Sea section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and relatively lower pressure in South America will induce NE to E gale-force winds in the south- central Caribbean Sea, primarily over the waters offshore Colombia every night through early next week. During the day, winds will remain strong to near-gale force. Seas with the gale- force winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from southwestern Louisiana southwestward to 26N95W and to inland Mexico just N of Tampico. The front is slowly moving E. Observations from buoys and platforms are reporting fresh to strong N winds behind the front and seas of 8-10 ft. These winds are forecast to further increase reaching gale-force offshore Tampico, Mexico this evening, then spread S to offshore the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, overnight. The gale conditions in the western Bay of Campeche will persist into Fri night. Seas in this area will build to near 16 ft by Fri afternoon. Conditions will improve across the basin Sat night into Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 02N15W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 26W-30W and within 30 nm N of the ITCZ between 28W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning that is in effect for some sections of the western Gulf. Fresh to strong SE to S return flow around the western periphery of the subtropical Atlantic high pressure is occurring to the E of the cold front described in the Special Features section. Seas are in the range of 5-7 ft E of the front to near 87W, and 4-6 ft E of 87W. Both satellite and NWS Doppler radar imagery show increasing scattered showers and thunderstorms along a strong cold front that extends from southwestern Louisiana to Louisiana southwestward to 26N95W and to inland Mexico just N of Tampico. A few of the thunderstorms may be on the strong side. For the forecast, aside from conditions described above under Special Features, the fresh to strong SE to S winds ahead of the front will become gentle to moderate S to SW winds ahead of the cold front on Fri as it reaches from northern Florida southwestward to the central Bay of Campeche. But before it does that, the front will briefly become stationary tonight before it once again continues eastward starting late tonight. The cold front will weaken as it reaches the southeastern Gulf late Fri night, shifting SE of the basin early on Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are behind the front, outside the gale condition areas. Winds will become fresh from the NE S of about 25N Sat evening and gentle to moderate E winds on Sun as the front dissipates just SE of the area. In general, overall marine conditions are set to improve from Sat evening into Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA...Corrected Please see the Special Features section for information on the ongoing Gale Warning that is in effect for the waters offshore Colombia. Outside of the gale conditions that are described above, fresh to strong trade winds were indicated by the latest ASCAT data passes over the eastern and central Caribbean sections, with moderate to fresh trade winds in the western Caribbean, with the exception of fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Trade winds become SE in direction N of 18N and W of 80W. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in the basin, except for higher seas of 10-13 ft S of 15N between 72W-80W, including the Gale Warning area offshore Colombia. Lower seas of 5-6 ft N of 18N and W of 80W. For the forecast, a persistent subtropical ridge centered to the N of the area will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds through early next week. An area of northerly swell propagating through the topical Atlantic is forecast to linger through the weekend. Winds will increase to strong east of the Leeward Islands tonight into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from a 1012 mb low that is N of the area near 34N38W, south-southwest from the low to 27N41W and to 23N49W, where it transitions to a shear line that continues to 20N58W, to just N of Puerto Rico and to the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are within 90 nm SE of the front from 24N to 28N. Isolated showers are within 120 nm E of the front N of 28N. Isolated to scattered showers are possible along the shear line. Latest ASCAT data passes indicate fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front and mostly strong NE to E winds N of the shear line to near 22N. Seas behind the front and shear line are in the 8-12 ft range. Moderate SE return flow and seas of 4-7 ft prevail over the western Atlantic, with the lowest of the seas located between the Bahamas and Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the far eastern Atlantic, becoming moderate to fresh trades west of 35W. Seas east of 35W are 8-10 ft due to a long-period NE swell, and 4-7 ft in the elsewhere waters west of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W: Although the shear line will dissipate late tonight or early on Fri, high pressure building N of the area will allow for the strong winds that are N of the shear line to continue into Sat, with seas increasing to a peak of about 11 ft. A cold front is forecast to move over the waters off NE Florida early Fri evening. Strong winds are expected both E and W of this cold front N of 28N through Sat as it moves eastward. $$ Aguirre