000
AXNT20 KNHC 151005
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:

A western Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center that is 
near 29N75W is combining with the comparatively lower surface 
pressures that are in Colombia in order to support a surface 
pressure gradient in the south central Caribbean Sea. Expect fresh
to strong NE to E trade winds, and sea heights to range from 8 
feet to 10 feet, between 70W and 80W. The wind speeds will pulse 
to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night into the
weekend. The sea heights will range from 9 feet to 12 ft during
the gales. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: 

A cold front will emerge off Texas Thu morning. Strong to near 
gale force N winds can be expected behind the front in the western
and central Gulf Thu into early Sat. Gales will develop offshore 
Tampico, Mexico, Thu evening then spread S to off the coast of 
Veracruz, Mexico, overnight Thu. The gales in the western Bay of 
Campeche will persist into Fri night. Seas in this area will build
to near 17 ft by Fri afternoon. Conditions will improve Sat into 
Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to
02N20W to 00N33W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with
this features, S of 07N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features above for a Gale Warning in effect for
portions of waters offshore Mexico, where gales will develop
starting Thu afternoon. 

Surface high pressure has now well E of the area, and southerly 
flow between this high and lower pressure over the U.S. Southern 
Plains is causing moderate to fresh SE winds across the basin.
Locally strong winds are occurring in the eastern Bay of 
Campeche, in association with a weak, diurnally induce trough, 
that moved W off the Yucatan Peninsula last evening. Patchy fog is
restricting visibility in some areas of the Texas shelf waters 
this morning. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 4 to 6 ft
in the western Gulf, with highest seas offshore Texas and 
Louisiana. No convection is observed in the basin early this 
morning. 

For the forecast, with high pressure well E of the area and 
moving away, fresh to strong winds will continue in Gulf of 
Mexico in advance of the next cold front, which is described in
the Special Features section above.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for the coastal waters offshore Colombia.

A weak surface trough that had extended from SE Cuba to W of
Jamaica has dissipated overnight, as has associated convection.
The basin is thus left in a tradewind dominated regime, with
mainly fresh E winds, with the exception of strong trades in the
south-central basin and S of Hispaniola. Outside of the seas
associated with the gales, described above, waves are 5 to 7 ft in
the basin, except 2 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean.  

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient will persist across 
the south central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period, 
supporting fresh to strong easterly trades. Large NE to E swell 
with seas to 10 ft is over the tropical N Atlantic. Winds and seas
in this region will slowly diminish through tonight. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N50W to just N of Dominican
Republic. Within 150 nm E of the front, and N of 25N, scattered
moderate convection is ongoing. Fresh N winds follow the front for
about 300 nm, before decreasing in association with a 1022 mb
surface ridge centered just NE of the Bahamas. To the W of the
high, offshore Florida, fresh SE winds have developed. Seas N of
25N between the front and 70W are 8 to 12 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas
elsewhere behind the front, except 2 to 4 ft N and W of the
Bahamas. For waters to the S and E of the aforementioned cold 
front, N of 20N and W of 35W, gentle to moderate mainly S winds 
prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Seas in this vast area of water
range from 8 to 11 ft. 

Finally, for the tropical Atlantic S of 20N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 8
to 10 ft.  

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue moving E
and exit the basin tonight. A building ridge north of the area 
will strengthen the trades south of 25N tonight into Fri night, 
with seas in this zone increasing to 8 to 11 ft.

$$
KONARIK