000 AXNT20 KNHC 150513 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Feb 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: A western Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 29N75W, is combining with the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in Colombia, in order to support a modest surface pressure gradient in the south central Caribbean Sea. Expect fresh to strong NE to E trade winds, and sea heights to range from 8 feet to 10 feet, between 70W and 80W. The wind speeds will pulse to gale force, briefly, off the coast of Colombia each night through Friday, as the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure center moves eastward. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet, during the periods of the comparatively fastest wind speeds. The forecast sea heights for Thursday morning will range from 10 feet to 13 feet from 11N to 12N between 75W and 78W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to 03N19W, crossing the Equator along 22W, to 04S31W and 03S35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends toward the west-southwest, from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 29N75W, across Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W. Strong SE wind flow has been covering the western two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh SE winds have been in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating stationary front was in the Texas coastal plains. The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet from 23N northward between 87W and 92W. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from 25N northward from 92W westward, and from 5 feet to 7 feet from 20N to 25N from 90W westward. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the area. The subtropical ridge centered east of Florida extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico and will continue shifting eastward into Wed. Fresh SE to S flow will dominate the waters into Wed. The next cold front will emerge off the Texas coast Thu morning with strong N winds behind it, spreading across the western and central Gulf into early Sat. Gale conditions are expected near Tampico, Mexico, Thu evening and offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Thu night into Fri night. Seas in this area will build to near 17 ft by Fri afternoon. Conditions improve on Sat into Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning that was issued for the coastal waters of Colombia. A surface trough extends from SE Cuba to the western coastal waters of Jamaica. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 17N to 20N between the Windward Passage and 81W. The sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet within 150 nm of the coast of Colombia, and they have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere within 330 nm of the coast of Colombia. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Strong to near gale-force NE winds have been in the Gulf of Venezuela from 12N southward from 71W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the central one-third of the area, from 20N southward from 83W westward to the north of Honduras, and moving through the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. A strong pressure gradient will persist across the south central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period, supporting fresh to strong easterly trades. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night into early next week. Elsewhere, large NE to E swell with seas to 10 ft is over the tropical N Atlantic. Winds and seas in this region will slowly diminish through Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N56W, to 26N60W and 21N71W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 285 nm to the east and east-southeast of the cold front from 24N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 500 nm to the east and the east-southeast of the rest of the cold front. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet from the cold front northward, and they have been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet from 25N southward between 60W and 70W. The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 8 feet from 20N southward from 50W westward. A dissipating cold front is along 31N14W to 28N20W and 28N26W. A surface trough continues from 28N26W to 29N39W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from the frontal boundary/surface trough northward from 40W eastward. Strong NE winds are from 09N northward from 26W eastward, and from 05N to 23N between 26W and 48W. Moderate to fresh E-to-SE winds are from 25N northward between 26W and 40W. Fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 50W eastward. The exception is for sea heights that range from4 feet to 7 feet to the southeast of the line that runs from SE Senegal to 03N30W. Gentle anticyclonic wind speeds are within a radius of 150 nm of the 29N75W high pressure center. Fresh NE winds are from 22N southward between the 31N56W 21N71W cold front and SE Cuba. Moderate NE-to-E winds are elsewhere from 70W westward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the area that is to the north of the 31N56W 21N71W cold front. Gentle NE winds are from 18N to the cold front between 54W and 66W. Moderate NE winds are from 14N to 18N between 50W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from 14N southward from 50W westward. Strong southerly winds are within 460 nm of the cold front from 28N northward. Mostly moderate and some fresh southerly winds are from 23N to 28N between 40W and 55W. A cold front extends from 31N55W to just E of the Turks and Caicos and will continue moving eastward over the next couple of days, exiting the basin Wed night. N of 28N and E of 60W, strong winds and rough seas behind the front will prevail to night. A building ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades south of 25N Wed night into Fri night. $$ MT/sk