000 AXNT20 KNHC 142316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Feb 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low continues to support a modest pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean, producing fresh to strong NE to E trades between 70W and 80W. Seas across this area are 8-10 ft, with 8-9 ft seas extending west and southwestward to near 10N78.5W. Winds will pulse briefly to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Fri as the above mentioned high pressure slides eastward over the western Atlantic. Seas will range 8 to 11 ft during the periods of strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to near 01N20W. The ITCZ extends westward from 01N20W to the Brazilian coast at 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 02N between 10W and 14W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure across the Southern Plains continues to produce strong southerly return flow across the western Gulf W of 87W. This pattern has prevailed through the overnight hours, and seas have built to 8 to 12 ft over the NW Gulf based on recent buoy observations. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail elsewhere across the basin, where seas are generally 2-4 ft. Skies are generally clear to partly cloudy across most of the basin, except for broken to overcast multi-layer clouds across NW portions, where patchy light rain is likely. For the forecast, the strong southerly winds in the NW Gulf will decrease to moderate to fresh this evening, then increase again by Wed evening ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas coast Thu morning. Strong N winds and building seas will follow the front, spreading across the western and central Gulf into early Sat. Gale conditions are expected near Tampico, Mexico, Thu afternoon into evening and offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Thu night through Fri. Seas will build to near 17 ft over the SW Gulf by Fri afternoon. Conditions are expected to improve from W to E on Sat into Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. A dissipating cold front extends southwestward through the Windward Passage to the northern coastal waters of Jamaica. Isolated showers are possible across the waters between Jamaica and Cuba along the frontal boundary. Moderate NE winds are noted per scatterometer data in the lee of eastern Cuba while moderate E winds are between Cuba and Jamaica. Fresh to strong winds persist near the coast of Colombia with seas of 8 to 10 ft based on an altimeter pass. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the remainder of the basin with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba and 2 to 4 ft in the Windward Passage. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient will persist across the south central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period, supporting fresh to strong easterly trades. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through the weekend. Elsewhere, large NE to E swell with seas to 10 ft is over the tropical N Atlantic. Winds and seas in this region will slowly diminish through Wed night into Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N58W and continues SW to the Turks and Caicos Islands then extends as a dissipating frontal boundary through the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up ahead of the front mainly N of 25N between the front and 55W. Fresh to locally strong winds are still noted on either side of the front N of 27N. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell follow the front N of 26N. Similar sea heights are noted ahead of the front N of 28N. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are observed on satellite imagery in the wake of the front. W of the front, a 1021 mb high pressure is located near 28N75W and extends a ridge over Florida, the Bahamas and most of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Light and variable winds are observed near the high center while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are blowing across the Bahamas and the Old Bahamas Channel into the Straits of Florida. E of the front, strong high pressure prevails, centered on a 1031 mb high pressure situated just SW of the Azores. Fresh to locally strong tradewinds are south of 22N and E of 50W, where seas are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail elsewhere between 50W and the cold front, with seas generally 5 to 8 ft. E of 35W, latest Meteo France forecast indicates strong to near gale force winds for the Madeira Islands and between the Canary Islands. A cold front crosses between these islands and extend into the forecast waters to near 28N25W. Seas are 6-9 ft in mixed swell across these waters. For the forecast W of 55W, the first cold front will continue moving eastward over the next couple of days, exiting the basin by Wed night. N of 27N and E of 63W, strong winds and rough seas in association with this front will prevail into tonight. A building ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades south of 25N Wed night through Fri night. $$ GR