649 AXNT20 KNHC 141729 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1610 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure across Florida and the eastern seaboard of the U.S. continues to support a modest pressure gradient across the south central Caribbean, producing fresh to strong NE to E trades between 70W and 80W. Gale-force winds occurring within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia between 74.5W and 75.5W overnight have persisted into this morning, and are expected to diminish to around 30 kt through this afternoon. Seas across this area are 8-10 ft, with 8-9 ft seas extending west and southwestward to near 10N78.5W. Winds will pulse briefly to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Fri as high pressure currently located over Florida slides eastward and into the western Atlantic. Seas will range 8 to 11 ft during the periods of strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml East Atlantic Gale Warning: Northerly winds on the west side of a southward drifting low pressure are likely to increase over the next 24 hours, bringing the threat of gale conditions to Meteo- France zone Madeira Wed. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N14W and continues SW to near 05N17W. The ITCZ extends westward from 01N21W to 00N28W to the Brazilian coast at 02.5N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along the ITCZ, from 02.5N to 03S between 18W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure center is analyzed across northern Florida near located near 29.5N82W, and extends northward across the eastern seaboard of the U.S. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and low pressure across the Southern Plains continues to produce strong southerly return flow across the western Gulf W of 90W. This pattern has prevailed through the overnight hours, and seas have built to 8-11 ft across most of the NW Caribbean this morning, based on recent buoy observations. Gentle to moderate E to SE flow prevails elsewhere across the E half of the basin, where seas area generally 2-4 ft. Skies are generally clear to partly cloudy across most of the basin, except for broken to overcast multi-layered stratus across NW portions, where patchy light rain is likely. For the forecast, the high pressure over northern Florida will continue shifting eastward today. Strong southerly winds will prevail in the NW Gulf into late today. The next cold front will emerge off the Texas coast Thu morning with strong N winds behind it, spreading across the western and central Gulf into the weekend. Gale conditions are expected near Tampico, Mexico, Thu evening and offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Thu night through Fri. Seas will build to near 17 ft behind the front by Fri night. Conditions improve on Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for details. A dissipating cold front extends southwestward through the Windward Passage to the northern coastal waters of Jamaica. Isolated showers are possible across the waters between Jamaica and Cuba. along the frontal boundary. Fresh NE winds are assumed to be occurring in the Windward Passage and also in the lee of eastern Cuba. Elsewhere fresh to strong trades dominate the south central Caribbean south of 14N, while moderate trades generally extend northward to 16N to the E of 80W. Seas are 8-10 ft across SW portions, 3-6 ft to the E of 70W, and 2-4 ft across NW portions. Fair weather prevails across the basin this morning. Cool air behind the dissipating front produced regionally cold overnight low temperatures across the islands of the NW Caribbean, with Kingston, Jamaica reporting a low of 68 F, Havana, Cuba a low of 46 F, and large portions of eastern interior Cuba in the mid 40s F. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly trades over the south central Caribbean will prevail through the forecast period, and will expand northward to near Hispaniola tonight through Sat. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through Fri. Elsewhere, large NE to E swell with seas to 11 ft is over the tropical N Atlantic. Winds and seas in this region will slowly diminish through Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic cold front extends southwestward from near 31N60W to the Turks and Caicos Islands, then continues as a dissipating boundary through the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring along and within 210 nm E of the front to the N of 26N, with isolated showers elsewhere along the front E of 70W. Morning scatterometer winds showed fresh SW winds ahead of the front and N of 26N, and fresh NW behind the front N of 27.5N. Seas are 8-11 ft in this area E of the front, and 8-12 ft behind the front to 73W and N of 25N. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1019 mb is across N Florida and extends a modest ridge ESE to the front. Winds and variable at 10 kt or less to the W of 70W, with seas quickly diminishing to the W of 73W, to 2-3 ft offshore of Florida. E of the front, strong high pressure prevails, centered on a 1033 mb high just SW of the Azores. Fresh to locally strong tradewinds are south of 22N and E of 50W, where seas are 8-11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail elsewhere between 50W and the cold front, with seas generally 5-8 ft. Another cold front enters the forecast region near 31N20W and continues to near 28N30W. Moderate to fresh NE winds generally prevail S of 25N, from offshore of Africa to 30W. Seas are 6-9 ft in mixed swell across these waters. For the forecast W of 55W, the western Atlantic will continue moving eastward over the next couple of days, exiting the basin by Wed night. N of 27N and E of 65W, strong winds and rough seas in association with this front will prevail into tonight. Strengthening high pressure will build a strong ridge north of the area through Fri, and act to strengthen the trades south of 25N Wed night into Fri night. $$ Stripling