000 AXNT20 KNHC 111803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Feb 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and Colombia Low will continue to support strong to gale-force E to NE winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through midweek next week. Seas with these winds will range from 10 to 13 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends southwestward from a 1014 mb low just south of the Florida Panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche. A 1032 mb high behind this front over southern Texas and northern Mexico will sustaining gale winds and 14 to 17 ft seas offshore from Veracruz, Mexico through early this afternoon. In addition, the aforementioned 1014 mb now is forecast to strengthen and introduce strong to gale winds with 11 to 14 ft seas at the northeastern Gulf this evening through early Sun. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal 1014 mb low currently over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually strengthen, while track northeastward across northern Florida and southern Georgia up the eastern seaboard of the United States Sun and Mon. This process will bring strong to gale-force winds N of 29N on both sides of the front from Sun evening through Mon night between 77W and 65W. Seas in and near these gales will peak between 12 and 16 ft. For all the above Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enter the Atlantic Ocean along the African coast near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border, then extends southwestward to 02N19W. No significant convection is seen near the trough. An ITCZ then continues westward from 02N19W through 01N30W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 27W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on two Gale Warnings. A stationary front reaches westward from north of Tampa, Florida to a 1014 low just south of the Florida Panhandle. A cold front extends southwestward from this low to the eastern Bay Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the low over the northeastern Gulf, and also near and up to 120 nm east of the cold front. Patchy rain is seen up to 80 nm west of the cold front. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near- gale northerly winds and seas of 10 to 14 ft are present across the western Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds with 7 to 10 ft seas are found at the central Gulf. Fresh to locally strong cyclonic winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft exist at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail at the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, ongoing gales offshore from Veracruz, Mexico will prevail the rest of this morning. Tonight, the low will move northeastward out of the Gulf while strengthening, and W gales are forecast to develop in the NE Gulf in its wake. Winds and seas should gradually diminish from west to east beginning Sun evening. In the extended range, strong to near gale SE to S return flow should develop over the western Gulf beginning Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. A large dome of 1026 nm high at the central Atlantic continues to sustain a easterly trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Patchy trade-wind showers are evident near the central basin, and east of the Nicaragua coast. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong E winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft exist at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are found at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will continue over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through the weekend. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun morning, then dissipate by Mon. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front in the northwestern basin on Sun and Sun night. Elsewhere, large and long-period E swell with seas at 8 to 10 ft is over the tropical North Atlantic. This swell is affecting the Lesser Antilles and will continue today and Sun before gradually subsiding Mon. In the extended range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen the E to SE trades in the northwestern Caribbean by Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas. A stationary front reaches west-southwestward from off the Carolina coast across 31N79W to northern Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen north of 29N between 77W and the Georgia-northern Florida coast. A 1014 mb low is triggering scattered showers south of the Azores, north of 25N between 27W and 35W. A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Brazilian coast near Belem. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate with locally fresh N winds and 9 to 11 ft seas in northerly swell are present southwest of the Azores, north of 22N between 34W and 47W. Near the Canary Islands, a 1018 mb high is providing light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 34W. Farther west, the Atlantic ridge is supporting light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas north of 24N between 47W and the aforementioned cold front. To the south, moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas of 7 to 11 ft are noted from 05N to 22N/24N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found north of 05N to 20N between the central African coast and 40W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, a low pressure and its associated cold front will move off Georgia and northeastern Florida late tonight. As the low moves northeast away from the area, the cold front will drag across the W Atlantic. It will reach from just west of Bermuda to eastern Cuba Mon morning, from just east of Bermuda to Hispaniola Tue morning, and from 27N55W to 23N65W Wed morning. Strong winds and rough seas will occur on both sides of the front, mainly N of 26N through Tue. North of 29N, gales are expected on both sides of the front Sun through Mon. Elsewhere, large and long-period E swell with seas at 8 to 9 ft are occurring south of 23N and east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. This swell is affecting areas from Hispaniola to the Lesser Antilles and will continue today before gradually subsiding. $$ Forecaster Chan