000 AXNT20 KNHC 091030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Feb 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure of 1028 mb located SW of Bermuda combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force near the coast of Colombia at night. A recent scatterometer pass shows several wind barbs of 35 kt over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombian. These marine conditions are forecast to likely persist into the upcoming weekend. Seas will peak at 13 or 14 ft within the area of the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf late tonight or early Fri morning, merging with a stationary front located over the west-central Gulf. The merged front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the NW Yucatan peninsula by Fri night, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the Yucatan Channel by Sat afternoon. Northerly gale force winds are expected near Tampico, Mexico Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico late Fri afternoon through early Sat. Gales could also persist over the central Bay of Campeche into Sat morning. Very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front, especially over the SW Gulf. The forecast calls for northerly winds of 30 to 40 kt over the SW Gulf and building seas up to 16 or 17 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Ocean Swell Event: Large and long period northerly swell continues to propagate across most of the Atlantic forecast waters. This swell event is currently reaching the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles and the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean as well as the waters E of the Leeward Islands creating hazardous marine conditions. All the Atlantic buoys located between 55W and 70W are reporting seas greater that 12 ft. Several altimeter passes indicate seas of 10 to 15 ft in the wake of a frontal boundary that extends 31N46W to 25N55W to 22N70W. This front will be reinforcing over the Atlantic by Fri evening with additional pulses of long period NW swell affecting the forecast waters. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft today. The new swell event will propagate across the north waters between 35W and 55W on Fri, with seas building to 11 or 12 ft. Looking ahead, a developing low pressure system near the coast of Georgia could bring seas 12 ft or greater over the waters N of 27N and E of Florida to about 70W on Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the Guinea/Guinea-Bissau border near 11N15W into the Atlantic ocean near 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 04N between 15W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upcoming strong cold front is forecast to be followed by gale- force northerly winds Friday. Please see the Special Features section for details. A cold front is moving across the NW Gulf and extends from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico. A band of showers and thunderstorms, some severe, is associated with the front. Frequent lightning and strong gusty wind are likely with the storms. Fresh NW winds are noted over the NW Gulf in the wake of the front while moderate to fresh E to SE winds are ahead of the front. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters and the State of Florida. Fresh to strong east winds with seas to 8 ft are seen in the Straits of Florida. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 5 to 7 ft behind the front. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft E of the frontal boundary. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from the western Florida panhandle to the south-central Bay of Campeche this evening and stall. A stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Thu night or early Fri morning, and merge with the stalling front. The merged front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the NW Yucatan peninsula by Fri night, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the Yucatan Channel by Sat afternoon. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Strong to near gale force winds could occur over the north-central and NE Gulf behind the front on Sat. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from W to E across the basin on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for more details. Recent satellite derived wind data provided observations of strong to gale force winds near the coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong trades across the remainder of the central and east Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the Windward Passage, between Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 10 to 14 ft over the south-central Caribbean, 9 to 10 ft S of Hispaniola, 8 to 9 ft in the Windward Passage and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba, 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is noted between Haiti and Jamaica, and also near 17N71W. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the central and NE Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras through late this week, strongest at night. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Sat and move across the NW Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about an ongoing Atlantic Swell Event behind a central Atlantic cold front. As of 0600 UTC, the above mentioned cold front enters the forecast region near 31N56W, then continues SW to near 27N51W where it becomes stationary to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. The tail end of the front is producing a few showers over those islands and regional waters. Cold air stratocumulus clouds follow the front. W of the front, a 1028 mb high pressure located near 30N71W dominates the western Atlantic, the Bahamas and Florida. Fresh to strong winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge across the Bahamas, the Old Bahama Channel into the Straits of Florida, including the approach to the Windward Passage. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is influenced by a 1036 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this high and the lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ results in a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds S of 22N and W of 30W. Seas of 8-10 ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves are with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. A line of showers and thunderstorms extends from the Cabo Verde Islands toward the NE to near 20N19W. This convective activity is to the SE of an upper- level low spinning near 26N25W that is also generating some showers. For the forecast W of 55W, a swell event is propagating across the forecast waters reaching the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. Please, see the Special Features section for details. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward Passage through late this week. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move off NE Florida late Fri night. A low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary just off the coast of Georgia by Sat evening. The low will move NE, dragging the cold front across the forecast region Sat night through Mon night. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected on both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N, with gale force westerly winds possible north of 30N on Sun. $$ GR