000 AXNT20 KNHC 090010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Feb 09 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure of 1029 mb located north of the area near 31N78W combined with relatively lower pressure in Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia through late week. Seas will peak to 13 or 14 ft within the area of the strongest winds. Latest ASCAT data suggests that winds are very near gale-force in this part of the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Thu night or early Fri morning, reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri evening, and move across the Yucatan Channel by Sat evening. Northerly gale-force winds are expected near Tampico, Mexico Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico late Fri afternoon through early Sat. Gales could also persist over the central Bay of Campeche into Sat morning. Very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front, especially in the southwestern Gulf. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from W to E on Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Ocean Swell Event: A cold front extends from near 31N49W southwestward to 26N54W and to 23N64W, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front to the southeastern Bahamas. Large N swell long-period N swell at 12-14 ft is present to the NW and N of the front. Seas are in the range of 8-12 ft, except for much higher seas of 12-17 ft from 16N to 29N and between the front and 69W per latest altimeter data behind the front. Fresh NE to E winds are N and NW of the frontal boundary to near 25N, while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere N and NW of the frontal boundary. The aforementioned swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters reaching the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles tonight into Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W to 03N17W, where latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and continues to 01N25W, crossing the Equator at 30W and to near 01S39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 26W-32W and from 01N to 03N between 34W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upcoming strong cold front is forecast to be followed by gale-force northerly winds. Please see the Special Features section for details. A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low that is analyzed near Corpus Christi, Texas southward to just E of Brownsville and to inland Mexico at 25N98W, while Atlantic high pressure protrudes westward across the far northern Gulf to near 30N90W. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ahead of the front to near 92W and N of about 25N. Frequent lightning and strong wind gusts are likely with the storms. E of this activity, broad anticyclonic flow associated to the high pressure covers the central and eastern Gulf areas. Seas are in the range of 5-7 ft, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft in the west-central gulf from 22N to 26N and W of 94W, where strong N winds are evident. For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will reach from the coast of Mississippi to the south-central Bay of Campeche Thu morning before weakening and dissipating Thu night. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the NW Gulf are likely to continue ahead of and along the front through tonight over the NW Gulf. The storms will move E to the north-central Gulf tonight and into Thu morning. Frequent lightning and strong wind gusts are likely to continue with with these storms. Fresh to strong northerly winds will briefly follow this front over the west-central Gulf through tonight. A stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Thu night or early Fri morning, reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri evening, and move across the Yucatan Channel by Sat evening. Northerly gale-force winds are expected behind this cold front. Please see the Special Features section for details regarding these upcoming conditions. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for more details. Latest ASCAT data reveal fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean S of 16N, and fresh to locally strong winds over the Windward Passage, between Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 9-14 ft over the south-central Caribbean, 9-10 ft S of Hispaniola, 6-9 ft in the Windward Passage and 5-7 ft elsewhere. Pockets of shallow moisture embedded in the easterly trade wind flow are over some sections of the seas, mainly N of 13N. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the central and NE Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras through late this week, strongest at night. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Sat and move across the NW Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about an ongoing Atlantic Swell Event behind a central Atlantic cold front. A cold front extends from near 31N49W southwestward to 26N54W and to 23N64W, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front to the southeastern Bahamas. Broken low and mid-level clouds along with possible scattered showers are along and to within 90-120 nm E of the front are seen N of 25N. Cold-air stratocumulus clouds are N and NW of the front. Highest seas N of the front are about 17 ft from 27N to 29N between 55W-65W. Elsewhere N of the front seas of 8-12 ft prevail. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the Bahamas and the Old Bahamas Channel, including the approach of the Windward Passage. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of a 1036 mb high pressure located N of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is resulting in a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds S of 23N and E of 55W. Seas of 9-11 ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves are with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will remain nearly stationary along 22N-23N through Thu evening while weakening. Large and long period northerly swell, with seas to 16 ft follow the front. This swell event will continue to propagate across the forecast waters reaching the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles tonight into Thu. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward Passage through late week. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move off NE Florida late Fri night. Low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary just off the coast of Georgia by Sat evening. The low will move NE, dragging the cold front across the forecast region Sat night into Sun night. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas are expected on both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N, with gale force W winds possible north of 30N Sun., $$ Aguirre