000 AXNT20 KNHC 071552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through late this week. The sea heights are forecast to range from 9 feet to 14 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. Atlantic Ocean SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A first cold front passes through 31N59W to 25N65W, to the SE Bahamas near 21N74W. A secondary cold front is about 280 nm to the NNW of the first cold front. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the SE of the first cold front from 28N northward, and within 60 nm on either side of the rest of the first cold front. Isolated moderate is within 60 nm to the SE of the secondary cold front. Long-period NW swell, that is combined with NE wind wave, is producing sea heights that range from 11 feet to 14 feet from 15N northward between 30W and 50W. The swell train, with a leading edge period of 16 to 18 seconds, is reaching 01N36W, and the coast of South America between 40W and 60W. This swell event will continue to propagate through the Atlantic Ocean between 30W and 60W today. The sea heights are forecast to subside gradually, to less than 12 feet by tonight. Large northerly swell, that is being generated by a 976 mb low pressure center that is near 39N63W, with hurricane-force winds in the NW Atlantic Ocean, currently is reaching the forecast waters. The sea heights will build to nearly 18 feet by Wednesday morning, behind the two cold fronts. The sea heights will be less than 12 feet on Thursday. The sea heights of 8 feet or greater will continue to cover most of the Atlantic Ocean forecast waters during this work-week. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W, crossing the Equator along 23W, to 01S30W and 01S39W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of the line 08N13W 06N33W 03N51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 23N97W, inland to 27N103W in Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the surface trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from NW Cuba to 26N between 82W and 87W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect moderate to fresh SE-to-S winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect gentle to moderate E-to-SE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern half of the Gulf. Patches of low level clouds are elsewhere, moving northward under the southerly flow. A 1029 mb high pressure center in North Carolina spreads ridging into the central Gulf, as a cold front moves E over west-central Texas. The resultant pressure gradient between these two features will support fresh SE to S winds across the Gulf of Mexico through Wed. The cold front over Texas will move over the western Gulf Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will briefly follow the front that will stall over the west-central Gulf on Thu while dissipating. A stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu night, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Merida, Mexico Fri evening, and exit the basin by Sat morning. Gale conditions are possible near Tampico, Mexico early Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico during the evening hours. Gales could persist over the central and western Bay of Campeche through Fri night and into Sat morning. Rough to very rough seas are also expected in the wake of the front, especially over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia. Please, read the Special Features section for more details. Sea heights that are ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet are reaching the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea, on the Atlantic Ocean side. The sea heights have been ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet in the coastal waters of Colombia. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet in the rest of the central one-third of the area, and within 150 nm to the north of Panama. The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, within 500 nm to the north of Panama. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 5 feet, elsewhere, in the western one-third of the Caribbean Sea, that includes in the NW corner of the area. The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet in the eastern one-third of the area. Near gale-force NE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia. Strong NE winds are elsewhere within 330 nm of the coast of Colombia. Mostly moderate NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area, and in the rest of the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the western one-third of the area. Areas of shallow moisture, that are embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving through the area. Expect isolated to widely scattered passing rainshowers. Strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea. Fresh winds will be elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period. The wind speeds will increase in the Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras late this afternoon through late this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel on Sat morning, and move across the NW Caribbean through Sun morning. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT. Fresh to strong winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 12 feet, are on either side of the two cold fronts. Moderate to fresh NE winds are moving through the Bahamas into the Straits of Florida. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period that ended at 07 Feb/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN, is 0.66 for Bermuda. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet from 05N northward from 30W eastward. A 1042 mb high pressure center is near 44N28W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from 60W eastward. The surface pressure gradient that is between this high pressure center and comparatively lower pressures that are near the ITCZ, is resulting in a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds, and sea heights that range from 9 feet to 14 feet, from 26N southward from 55W eastward. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extending from 31N59W to the SE Bahamas will reach from 30N55W to 23N65W to the SE Bahamas by this evening, and from 25N55W to 21.5N70W by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds will persist N of 28N on either side of the front through tonight. Large N swell will propagate across the forecast waters E of the Bahamas to 55W through late week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward Passage late today through late week. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move off NE Florida Fri night with strong winds and rough seas on both sides of the front. $$ mt/ah