615 AXNT20 KNHC 061751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through late this week. The sea heights are forecast to range from 9 feet to 11 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. Atlantic Ocean GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: A 994 mb low pressure center is near 34N71W. A cold front extends from the 994 mb low pressure center, through 31N71W, to 27N73W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 240 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front. Gale-force SW winds, and sea heights that range from 11 feet to 13 feet, are from 29N to 31N between 67W and 72W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the north of the line that runs from the coast of Africa at 20N, to 22N31W to 24N50W. Near gale-force NE winds are from 12N to 21N between 29W and 50W. Strong NE winds cover the areas that are from 06N to 26N from 50W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N northward from 26W eastward. Fresh to strong easterly winds are between 50W and 60W. Strong to near gale-force SE winds have been covering the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 60W to the approaching cold front. Fresh to strong SE winds have been elsewhere from 60W westward away from the front. The sea heights of 8 feet and higher are reaching the coastal waters of South America between 40W and 60W. The sea heights of 8 feet and higher also are nearly everywhere from 20N northward from 60W westward, away from the Bahamas. The sea heights of 4 feet or lower are in the Bahamas. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. Atlantic Ocean SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: The SW Atlantic Ocean stationary front has dissipated. Large and long-period swell has been covering the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 40W and 60W. The comparatively highest sea heights that have been ranging from 14 feet to 17 feet have been near 30N between 40W and 46W. The sea heights are 18 feet and higher from 31N northward. The swell direction is N to NW, with a period that has been ranging from 12 seconds to 16 seconds. Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the north of the line that runs from the coast of Africa at 20N, to 22N31W to 24N50W. Near gale-force NE winds are from 12N to 21N between 29W and 50W. Strong NE winds cover the areas that are from 06N to 26N from 50W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N northward from 26W eastward. Fresh to strong easterly winds are between 50W and 60W. Strong to near gale-force SE winds have been covering the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 60W to the approaching cold front. Fresh to strong SE winds have been elsewhere from 60W westward away from the front. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, curving to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, to crossing the Equator along 22W, to 01S25W and 01S31W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of the line 08N at the coast of Africa, to 07N26W 05N41W 05N52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area near 21N97W in the coastal plains of Mexico. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern half of the area, and they have been ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet in the western half of the area. Gentle to moderate winds have been in the western half of the area. Gentle winds or slower have been in the eastern half of the area. High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will move eastward during the next few days. Southerly return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong tonight into early Tue in the western Gulf, with fresh winds spreading to the remainder of the Gulf Tue. Strong winds also will develop off NW Cuba and the NW Yucatan Tue night into early Wed. A cold front will enter the western Gulf on Wed with strong N winds possible behind it off S Texas and Mexico, and quickly diminishing as the front reaches the central Gulf early Thu. A stronger cold front will enter the Gulf late Thu into Fri with near gale-force winds in the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING that has been issued for the coastal waters of Colombia. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, covering the much of the Caribbean Sea. The exception is in the SE corner of the area. A surface trough curves from northern Colombia, through 14N80W, through NW Cuba, and into the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the trough. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are in the Atlantic Ocean, to the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. Those same winds have been in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea, and in the northern half of the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are in the southern half of the central one-third of the area. Moderate to fresh NE winds have been in the southern two-thirds of the western one-third of the area. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, and in parts of the SW corner. The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet in the eastern one-third of the area, and from 2 feet to 4 feet in the western one-third of the area. The subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain a strong pressure gradient across the central Caribbean Sea through the week. Strong easterly winds will continue in the south central Caribbean, Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into late this week. Seas will build to near 13 ft during the strongest winds. Winds will increase in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras late Tue through late this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING and the ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT. A stationary front is along 31N45W to 30N52W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the stationary front. A 1041 mb high pressure center is near 40N43W. The rest of the information about the Atlantic Ocean is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Rapidly strengthening 994 mb low pressure near 34N71W is moving NE away from the area. A cold front extends from the low to 31N71W to 28N72W to Andros Island, Bahamas. Gale-force S to SW winds are present N 29N and within 180 nm E of the cold front. As the low pres moves farther away, gale force winds will end E of the front late this afternoon or early this evening. The cold front will sweep across the Atlantic over the next couple of days, reaching from near 27N55W to the SE Bahamas Wed morning. Strong wind speeds will continue north of 28N on both sides of the front through Tue night. Large swell will build in Wed behind the front and spread southward across the basin through late week. $$ mt/ah