000 AXNT20 KNHC 061037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1035 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the region and lower pressures in Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, through late this week. Seas are forecast to peak near 13 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Atlantic Gale Warning: A strengthening 1009 mb low pressure near 31N75W is moving quickly to the northeast into the NW Atlantic. A forming cold front extends from the low center to 26N77W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the frontal boundary to 66W and north of 25N. Gale- force winds are found N of 29N and between 74W and 77W and will spread eastward during the morning hours to 65W. Strong to near gale-force winds are present N of 27N and W of 60W. Seas are peaking near 14 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force by this afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Atlantic Significant Swell: The stationary front in the SW Atlantic has dissipated. However, large and long-period swell is analyzed between 45W and 63W and N of 25N, continuing north of the discussion area. Swell direction is N to NW, with a period of 12-16 seconds. Aside from the swell, fresh, locally strong NE winds are found in the area mentioned. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N14W and continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N19W to 01S30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection us noted within 120 nm of both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure system positioned near 29N92W dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining generally tranquil weather conditions. Light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail north of 21N. Moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move eastward over the next few days. Southerly return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong tonight into early Tue. Strong winds will also develop off NW Cuba and NW Yucatan Tue night into early Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed with strong to near-gale N winds possible behind it and quickly diminishing as the front reaches the central Gulf early Thu. A stronger cold front will enter the Gulf late Thu into Fri with possible gale-force winds in the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia. A strong high-pressure system centered north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to strong trades across the eastern, central, and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea. Seas are 6-9 ft across these regions, except for slightly higher seas to 10 ft off NW Colombia. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 4 ft are across the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain a strong pressure gradient across the central Caribbean Sea through the week. Strong easterly winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into late this week. Seas will build to near 13 ft during the strongest winds. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, and NW Caribbean Tue night into late this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the W Atlantic and Significant Swell in the Central and Western Atlantic. Outside of the low pressure system in the Special Features section, a stationary front extends from 31N41W to 29N53W. No deep convection is noted near this frontal boundary. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong 1039 mb high pressure system near 39N45W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong to strong easterly trade winds over much of the basin. Seas are 8-15 ft in these waters, with the highest seas occurring near 31N47W. The exception is light to moderate winds found N of 28N and between 30W and 45W, along with seas of 5-8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a strengthening 1009 mb low pressure is near 31N75W and a forming cold front extends from the low center to 26N77W. Gale-force winds are present N 29N and between 74W and 77W. Seas are peaking near 14 ft. The low pressure will move quickly northeastward into the NW Atlantic. Gale-force winds will remain N of 29N and spread eastward to 65W Mon morning. Winds will diminish below gale-force Mon afternoon and below strong speeds by Wed. The cold front will sweep across the SW Atlantic over the next couple of days, reaching near 27N55W to 23N80W by Wed morning. Seas behind the front will build to near 18 ft by early Wed, diminishing late in the week. $$ DELGADO