000 AXNT20 KNHC 060535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, through midweek. Seas are forecast to peak near 11 to 12 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Atlantic Gale Warning: An area of low pressure developed off the SE US Coast. A recent satellite scatterometer pass detected gale force winds over the NE quadrant of the low, north of 28N. The low pressure is forecast to move NE, strengthen, and will continue to produce gale-force winds tonight into Mon morning N of 30N between 69W and 76W. Seas are 10 to 12 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Atlantic Significant Swell: A stationary front extends from 31N43W to 27N57W. Large and long-period swell is analyzed between 45W and 60W from 25N to 31N and continues north of the discussion area. Swell direction is NW, with a period of 12-16 seconds. Aside from the swell, fresh, locally strong NE winds follow the front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ begins at 05N19W and continues to 02S30W to 01N40W and to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 03N between 21W and 28W. Similar convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 36W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging is weakening across the eastern half of the basin, where a trough has developed just W of the Florida Peninsula, stretching from Pensacola, FL, to the NW tip of Cuba. A recent scatterometer pass revealed light to gentle winds surrounding the trough. A 1023 mb high off the coast of southern Louisiana supports mainly moderate N-NE flow between 85W and 91W with moderate E to SE flow west of 91W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the basin, except within 60 nm of the coast, seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, high pressure will continue building across the basin from west to east. As the high moves E of the area, fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will develop Mon night into Tue, with the strongest winds occurring in the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed, with strong to near-gale N winds possible behind it and quickly diminishing as the front reaches the central Gulf late Wed into early Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia. A strong high-pressure system centered north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to strong trades across the eastern, central, and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea. Seas are 7-8 ft across these regions, except for slightly higher seas to 10 ft off NW Colombia. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 4 ft are across the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient will continue across the central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Strong trade winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into late this week. Seas will build to near 13 ft during the strongest winds. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Building ridge will result in fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean Tue into Wed, decreasing later in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the W Atlantic and Significant Swell in the Central and Western Atlantic. A 1014mb low pressure system has formed off the SE U.S. coast near 30N77W. A surface trough extends from the low to near Key Largo, FL. A line of showers and thunderstorms is within 30 nm ahead fo the boundary, reaching the northern Bahamas. Outside of the gale force winds, fresh to strong SE winds are ahead of the system from 26N to 31N and west of 65W. Elsewhere over the W Atlantic waters, fresh E-SE winds, where seas are 6 to 10 ft in NE swell. A stationary front extends from 31N43W to 27N57W. Fresh E winds prevail in the vicinity of the front, with rough seas north of 25N and west of 45W Fresh to locally strong NE winds are ahead of the stationary front across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters, as shown by recent scatterometer data. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in that region. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft are in the deep tropics. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate late tonight. The newly formed low off the SE U.S. coast will move northeastward tonight into Mon and strengthen. Gale-force winds will continue developing tonight into early Mon morning N of 29N and between 65W and 75W. Winds will diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon. $$ Mora