000 AXNT20 KNHC 060005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, through midweek. Seas are forecast to peak near 11 to 12 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Atlantic Gale Warning: An area of low pressure is developing off the SE US Coast. The low pressure is forecast to move NE and strengthen, and will produce gale-force winds tonight into Mon morning N of 30N between 69W and 76W. Seas are currently 7-11 ft, and are expected to build to 10-12 ft by Mon morning. Winds will diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Atlantic Significant Swell: A stationary front extends from 31N46W to 25N65W to the central Bahamas near 25N76W. Large and long period swell is analyzed north of the frontal boundary. Seas are 8-15 ft west of the front to 68W, the highest seas being located N of 26N to 58W. Swell direction is NW with a period of 12-16 seconds. Aside from the swell, fresh to locally strong NE winds follow the front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 05N18W to 01N22W. The ITCZ begins at 01N22W and continues to 00N36W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05S to 12N between 10W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging has started to weaken across the eastern half of the basin where a center low pressure has developed just SW of the Tampa Bay area near 27N85W. This is generating widely scattered showers E of 85W and S of 29N. A 1023 mb high is off the coast of southern Louisiana which ridging is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds W of 91W. Between 86W and 91W, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are observed along with seas of 4-5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will continue building across the basin from west to east. As the high moves E of the area, fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will develop Mon night into Tue, with the strongest winds occurring in the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed with strong to near-gale N winds possible behind it and quickly diminishing as the front reaches the central Gulf late Wed into early Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia. A strong high pressure system centered north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to strong trades across the eastern, central and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea, with near gale-force winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas are 7-8 ft across these regions, except for slightly higher seas to 10 ft off NW Colombia. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 4 ft are across the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient will continue across the central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Strong trade winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale-force off Colombia nightly into midweek. Seas will build to near 12 ft during the strongest winds. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean into midweek. Building ridge will result in fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean Tue into Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the W Atlantic and Significant Swell in the Central and Western Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N46W to 25N65W to the central Bahamas near 25N76W. Fresh to strong winds prevail in the vicinity of the front, with seas peaking to 12 ft to the east of the NW Bahamas. Heavy showers are occurring just N of the northern Bahamas between W of 70W being supported by upper level diffluent flow. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are ahead of the stationary front across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters as shown by recent scatterometer data. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in that region. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft are in the deep tropics. For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary is forecast to weaken tonight while a low pressure area develops off NE Florida. The low pressure will move NE into NW Atlantic and strengthen, with gale-force winds developing late tonight into early Mon morning N of 29N and between 65W and 73W. Winds will diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon. $$ Ramos