000 AXNT20 KNHC 052350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, through midweek. Seas are forecast to peak near 11 to 13 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Atlantic Gale Warning: An area of low pressure is developing off the SE US Coast. The low pressure is forecast to move NE and strengthen, and will produce gale-force winds tonight into Mon morning N of 30N between 69W and 76W. Seas are currently 7-11 ft, and are expected to build to 10-12 ft by Mon morning. Winds will diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Atlantic Significant Swell: A stationary front extends from 31N46W to 25N65W to the central Bahamas near 25N76W. Large and long period swell is analyzed north of the frontal boundary. Seas are 8-15 ft west of the front to 68W, the highest seas being located N of 26N to 58W. Swell direction is NW with a period of 12-16 seconds. Aside from the swell, fresh to locally strong NE winds follow the front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 05N18W to 01N22W. The ITCZ begins at 01N22W and continues to 00N36W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05S to 12N between 10W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging has started to weaken across the eastern half of the basin where a center low pressure has developed just SW of the Tampa Bay area near 27N85W. This is generating widely scattered showers E of 85W and S of 29N. A 1023 mb high is off the coast of southern Louisiana which ridging is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds W of 91W. Between 86W and 91W, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are observed along with seas of 4-5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will continue building across the basin from west to east. As the high moves E of the area, fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will develop Mon night into Tue, with the strongest winds occurring in the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed with strong to near-gale N winds possible behind it and quickly diminishing as the front reaches the central Gulf late Wed into early Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia. A strong high pressure system centered north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean Sea, with near gale force winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean, and 8-10 ft off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas are noted in the E Caribbean. In the SW Caribbean, NE winds are moderate and seas are 4-6 ft. In the NW Caribbean, E winds are light to gentle with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient will continue across the central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Strong trade winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into midweek. Seas will build to near 12 ft during the strongest winds. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean into midweek. Building ridge will result in fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean Tue into Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the W Atlantic and Significant Swell in the Central and Western Atlantic. The W Atlantic Waters northeast of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos are experiencing fresh to strong E winds associated with the frontal boundaries described in the Special Features section. Seas exceed 8 ft north of a line from 31N45W to 22N71W and along the Atlantic Exposures of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos to 31N80W. A surface trough and stationary front over the Florida Peninsula is producing some scattered showers and tstorms between the coast of Florida and the Northern Bahamas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds, evident on scatterometer data, prevail over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 6-7 ft. The exception is an area of locally strong NE winds south of 20N and west of 30W, which has persisted long enough to build seas of 8-10 ft in E swell within this area. For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary described in the Special Features section is forecast to weaken today. The low pressure centered off the SE US Coast will move NE into the NW Atlantic and strengthen today, with gale- force winds developing late tonight into early Mon morning N of 30N and between 69W and 76W. Winds will diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon. $$ Ramos