724 AXNT20 KNHC 051041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1035 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, through midweek. Seas are forecast to peak near 11 to 13 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml SW Atlantic Gale Warning: An area of low pressure is forecast to develop tonight off NE Florida near the tail-end of a weakening stationary front currently in the Bahamas. The low pressure is forecast to move NE into the NW Atlantic and strengthen, producing gale-force winds tonight into Mon morning N of 29N. The old frontal boundary is generating an area of rough seas reaching heights of 13 ft in N swell N of 25N. Rough to very rough seas will persist in the western Atlantic through Mon, with a new area of swell entering the region Mon night into Tue. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 02N22W. The ITCZ begins at 02N22W and continues to 01S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of 07N and E of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 06N and west of 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining a fairly dry weather pattern across the basin. A weak surface trough is along 87W, extending from 22N to 28N. Fresh easterly winds are observed over the eastern Gulf waters, east of the surface trough. Seas are 4-7 ft in these waters, with the highest seas occurring in the SE Gulf and Yucatan Channel. Light to locally moderate easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere, with the highest seas in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the fresh E winds in the eastern Gulf will diminish this morning as high pressure builds into the Gulf. As the high moves E of the area, fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will develop Mon night into Tue, with the strongest winds occurring in the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf Wed with strong N winds possible behind it and quickly diminishing as the front reaches the central Gulf late Wed into early Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia. A strong high pressure system centered north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to near gale-force easterly winds in the central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia, Gulf of Venezuela and off southern Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found in the eastern Caribbean. Fresh easterly winds winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-7 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, modest to strong pressure gradient will continue across the central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Strong trade winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into midweek. Seas will build to near 13 ft during the strongest winds. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean into midweek. Building ridge will result in fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean Tue into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N49W to 25N64W, where it transitions into a stationary front to 24N81W. No deep convection is noted near this frontal boundary. Scatterometer satellite data from a few hours ago showed strong to near gale force NE winds north of the front from 25N to 29N between 70W and 78W, including over the northern Bahamas. Elsewhere north of the front and west of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds were noted, while east of 55W, winds shift from the NW. Seas are 8-13 ft behind the frontal boundary, with the highest seas east of the Bahamas. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 39N45W to 20N50W and there is no deep convection near the trough axis. A broad subtropical ridge over the NE Atlantic dominates the remainder of the basin. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are observed south of 22N due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 15N33W and confirmed by a recent altimeter satellite pass. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary in the SW Atlantic is forecast to weaken today and a new low pressure area to develop off NE Florida by tonight. The low pressure will move NE into NW Atlantic and strengthen, with gale- force winds developing late tonight into early Mon morning N of 29N and between 65W and 75W. Winds will diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon. $$ DELGADO