000
AXNT20 KNHC 050558
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0605 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in 
Panama and NW Colombia remains high. This will sustain nighttime 
gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the 
coast of Colombia, through Sunday night. Seas are forecast to 
peak at 9 to 11 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Large Atlantic Swell: A cold front is generating an area of 
rough seas reaching heights of 12 to 14 ft in N swell from 26N 
to 29N between 70W and the northern Bahamas and from 27N to 31N 
and continues north of our area of responsibility, between 63W 
and 70W. The rough seas will remain behind the cold front, north 
of 25N, within the area of strongest winds, reaching between 45W 
and 60W Sunday night, then beginning to subside Monday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 04N20W and to 
03N23W. The ITCZ begins at 03N23W and extends to 02N30W and 
00N40W. Scattered strong to moderate convection is noted from 
00N to 07N between the west coast of Africa and 17W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh E winds are beginning to diminish in the 
eastern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. However, seas remain 6 
to 8 ft south of 25N and are up to 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel. 
Gentle to moderate E winds and seas to 5 ft are elsewhere in 
Gulf waters. 

For the forecast, fresh NE winds and rough seas will diminish 
overnight across the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche as high 
pressure builds into the Gulf. As the high moves E of the area, 
fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will develop Mon 
night into Tue, with the strongest winds occurring in the 
western Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf 
Wed with strong N winds possible behind it.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details 
about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

Strong NE to E winds prevail in the Gulf of Venezuela and within 
120 nm off the coast of Colombia, being enhanced by regional 
climatological lower pressure. Seas over these areas are 6 to 9 
ft, except up to 10 ft offshore NW Colombia. Otherwise, fresh 
winds continue over the central and eastern basin, including the 
windward passage where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Mainly moderate 
trades are west of 80W with 3 to 5 ft seas, except near the 
entrance of the Yucatan Channel, seas are near 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the 
south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia 
tonight and Sun night, with fresh winds elsewhere over the 
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. 
Looking ahead, gales are possible again off Colombia Tue and Wed 
nights as high pressure builds north of the region. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on 
the large swell event over the western subtropical Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N52W to the central Bahamas and 
northern Cuba near 80W, where it transitions to a shear line and 
continues to the NE Yucatan peninsula. A recent scatterometer 
satellite pass found strong to near gale force NE winds north of 
the front from 25N to 29N between 70W and 78W, including over 
the northern Bahamas. Elsewhere north of the front and west of 
55W, fresh to strong NE winds were noted, while east of 55W, 
winds shift from the NW. These conditions generate an area of 
rough seas discussed in the special features section above. Seas 
of 7 to 11 ft are noted elsewhere behind the front, except 
within 60 nm offshore the FL Peninsula, seas are 4 to 6 ft. 
Gentle to moderate winds are ahead of the boundary, north of 20N.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N42W to 20N45W. 
East of the surface trough, trade winds have increased to 
moderate to fresh, mainly east of 35W, including north of the 
Canary Islands. Seas are 6 to 8 ft north of 24N and between 26W 
and the trough axis. Fresh trade winds are also noted south of 
20N between 20W and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 6 to 9 
ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front is expected to 
become stationary overnight, then weaken and dissipate by Sun 
night. It will be replaced by another cold front that will move 
offshore NE Florida Sun night into Mon. This second cold front 
will stall Tue night from 27N55W to the Windward Passage.

$$ 
Mora