000 AXNT20 KNHC 042348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in Panama and NW Colombia remains high. This will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia through Sunday night. Seas are forecast to peak at 9 to 11 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, then reaches southwestward to 02N25W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is flaring up south of the trough from 00N to 06N between 00W and 16W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N25W through 00N37W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 06N between 32W and 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds dominate the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico with seas of 5-8 ft, increasing in height towards the SE basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds are off the western Yucatan peninsula extending to the central Bay of Campeche where seas of 5-7 ft are present. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft are elsewhere across the NW gulf waters. Otherwise, deep layer dry air continue to support fair weather basin-wide. For the forecast, fresh NE winds and rough seas will diminish tonight across the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche as high pressure continues to build into the Gulf. As the high moves E of the area, fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will develop Mon night into Tue ahead of a cold front that will enter the NW Gulf Wed, with strong N winds possible behind it. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia. The sub-tropical ridge is prolonging a trade-wind regime for the entire basin with mainly moderate to fresh winds across the eastern half and SW portions of the basin. Strong NE to E winds prevail in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the coast of Colombia being enhanced by regional climatological lower pressure. Seas over these areas are between 5-7 ft, except 7-9 ft over the regions with strongest winds. Otherwise, patches of low-level moisture are supporting scattered to isolated showers over the NE and SE Caribbean. Similar shower activity is in the Yucatan channel due to the presence of a stationary front. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia tonight and Sun night, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead, gales are possible again off Colombia Tue and Wed nights as high pressure builds north of the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N56W to the central Bahamas, where it transitions to a stationary front and continues to the NE Yucatan peninsula. Strong to near-gale force winds and building seas follow the front with seas of 8-13 ft affecting the waters N of the central Bahamas, including the ESE Florida seaboard. Ahead of the front, mainly moderate to locally fresh winds are present with seas to 6 ft in NE swell. Subtropical surface ridging dominates the remainder central and eastern Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds mainly E of 40W or E of a 1026 mb center of high pressure located near 27N50W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft in this region while seas are up to 9 ft in the deep tropics in fresh to strong trade winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will fully stall tonight from 28N55W to Cuba overnight, then weaken and dissipate by Sun night. It will be replaced by another cold front that will move offshore NE Florida Sun night into Mon. This second cold front will stall Tue night from 27N55W to the Windward Passage. $$ Ramos