000 AXNT20 KNHC 040959 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the basin and lower pressures in NW Colombia and Panama will support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, through the remainder of this morning and possible again tonight. Seas are forecast to peak near 12 ft off northwest Colombia. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border near 07N11W to 02N17W. The ITCZ extends from 02N17W to 00N50W. No significant convection is evident. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite passes show fresh to strong winds and rough seas over all but the far northwest Gulf, with near-gale force winds over the Bay of Campeche. The winds and seas follow a front that is currently moving through the eastern Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident across the basin. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf today, as high pressure builds over the area behind the front. Looking ahead, expect fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow across the western Gulf on Mon and Tue, ahead of another cold front entering the northwest Gulf Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about the Gale Warning off NW Colombia. A cold front is moving into the Yucatan Channel, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas as noted by a ship observations off the western tip Cuba. Winds may be reaching gale force off Colombia as well with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south- central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia tonight, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead, gales are possible again off Colombia by mid week as high pressure builds north of the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front continues to move eastward in the western Atlantic, extending from 31N61W to the Straits of Florida. No deep convection is noted near the frontal boundary. Fresh to near gale- force northerly winds are present behind the cold front, as depicted by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft with the highest seas near 29N75W. Fresh to strong SW winds are found ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly north of 29N and west of 55W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds, mainly south of 20N and 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will stall from 29N55W to northwest Cuba tonight, then will weaken while it lifts north as a warm front through Sun ahead of another front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Mon afternoon, then start to stall from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Tue. $$ Christensen