000 AXNT20 KNHC 040444 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Feb 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front currently draped across the SE Gulf of Mexico sustains gale northerly winds off the coast of Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale-force N winds in the southern Bay of Campeche. Seas are peaking near 15 ft in the SW Gulf. Winds are forecast to drop below gale early Sat morning and below strong speeds by Sat afternoon. Seas will gradually subside on Sat, decreasing below 8 ft late Sat night into early Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the basin and lower pressures in NW Colombia and Panama will support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through early next week. Seas are forecast to peak near 12 ft off NW Colombia. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 01N33W to 01S47W. Isolated moderate convection is observed south of 07N and between 11W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about an ongoing Gale Warning. A cold front extends from SW Florida to NE Yucatan and there is no deep convection near this feature. Dry continental air dominates the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the Special Features area, fresh to strong NE-N winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico behind the cold front. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are found ahead of the cold front and in the NW Gulf of Mexico, along with seas of 3-6 ft. For the forecast, a cold front extending from near Naples, Florida to Cancun, Mexico will continue to move across the Gulf through this evening. Gale force winds and very rough seas are behind the front over the southwest Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are noted elsewhere in the wake of the front. Winds and seas will begin to diminish from west to east across the Gulf tonight into Sat, with winds below gale force in the southwest Gulf by early Sat morning. High pressure will follow the front. Looking ahead, expect fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow across the western Gulf on Mon and Tue, with another cold front entering the region on Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more details about the Gale Warning off NW Colombia. Patches of low-level moisture ride the trade winds across the Caribbean Sea, producing shallow, isolated showers. No deep convection is present in the basin. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America result in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are found off NE Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, as shown in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are present in the eastern Caribbean Sea, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south- central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia overnight tonight and possibly Sat night, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front continues to move eastward in the western Atlantic, extending from 31N71W to SE Florida. No deep convection is noted near the frontal boundary. Fresh to near gale-force northerly winds are present behind the cold front, as depicted by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft with the highest seas near 31N77W. Fresh to strong SW winds are found ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly north of 28N and west of 55W. Seas in the waters described are 6-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N66W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The ridge sustains moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds, mainly south of 23N. Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 08N51W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from Bermuda to Miami, Florida. Strong to near-gale force winds are on either side of the front north of 29N. The front will stall from 29N55W to the upper Florida Keys by late Sat, then weaken as it lifts north as a warm front through Sun ahead of another front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Mon afternoon, then start to stall from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Tue. $$ DELGADO