000 AXNT20 KNHC 022125 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Feb 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support pulsing minimal gale force winds off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect winds to gale force along with very rough seas off the coast of Veracruz from early Fri morning through Fri evening, following a cold front sweeping across the Gulf. Seas will peak at 10 to 15 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both gale warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the border of Liberia and Sierra Leone at 07N11.5W to 04N16W. The ITCZ axis extends from 04N16W to the Equator near 30W to near the northern coast of Brazil at 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 12W and 25W, and within 300 nm either side of the ITCZ between 25W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A stationary front extends from near Gulf Shores, Alabama to 1018 mb low pressure in the north-central Gulf near 27N93W to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 20N96.5W. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are west of the front along with 4 to 7 ft seas per recent in-situ observations. Gentle to moderate SE-S return flow is noted ahead of the front in earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft ahead of the front. For the forecast, the stationary front will begin progressing southeastward as a cold front later tonight and Fri. NW to N winds to gale force and very rough seas will follow the front over the far SW Gulf off the coast of Veracruz starting early Fri morning and persist through the remainder of the day. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow elsewhere through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through Sat night across the Gulf as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Conditions will be quiescent across the Gulf Sat night through Mon morning. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong S to SE return flow across the W Gulf on Mon and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica, in the lee of Cuba, and also across the central Caribbean Sea per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. The strongest winds are occurring off the higher coastal terrain of Colombia, with 8 to 11 ft seas currently. Mainly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, strong to near-gale NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal gale force tonight. Fresh to strong E trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into tonight as well. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the NW Caribbean Fri night and dissipate Sat. Moderate to fresh E trades are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, building high pressure to the north will strengthen the E trades across the central/E Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic Sun through Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge along 27N sustains moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh to strong winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, 4 to 6 ft seas with light to gentle flow prevails, except locally moderate winds offshore northern Florida ahead of a cold front off the Carolinas. Ridging extends from the SW N Atlantic to near 21N35W to near the Azores with gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 5 ft seas in mainly NE swell under the ridge. Surface troughing extends over the central Atlantic, from 28N46W to 1016 mb low pressure near 24.5N38.5W to 25N34W. Winds have diminished to moderate to fresh north of the surface trough to 30N per recent data. Moderate seas prevail in this area along with scattered showers. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except locally strong winds in the lee of the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure along 27N will shift east tonight, allowing SW winds to increase up to strong or near-gale between NE Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Fri afternoon and will reach Sat morning from 31N59W to S Florida. On Sun morning, the boundary will begin lifting northward as a warm front, ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas by Mon morning and from 31N60W to 27N55W by Tue morning. $$ Lewitsky