000 AXNT20 KNHC 021705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Feb 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support pulsing minimal gale force winds off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect winds to gale force along with very rough seas off the coast of Veracruz from early Fri morning through Fri evening, following a cold front sweeping across the Gulf. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is evident S of 06N between 12W-50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A stationary front extends from near Panama City, Florida to a 1016 mb low pressure in the northwest Gulf near 28N94W, then southward to 20N96W. Moderate to fresh winds are evident to the north and west of the front/low, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft wave heights are evident elsewhere. For the forecast, the low pressure over the NW Gulf will move to the Carolinas through tonight. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Gulf through Fri night. Winds to gale force and very rough seas will follow the front over the far SW Gulf off the coast of Veracruz starting early Fri morning and persist through the remainder of the day. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow elsewhere through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through Sat night across the Gulf as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, expect fresh S return flow across the NW Gulf on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage and the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are occurring off the higher coastal terrain of Colombia, with 8 to 10 ft seas. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the strong to near-gale NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal gale force tonight. Fresh to strong E trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into tonight as well. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the NW Caribbean Fri night and dissipate Sat. Moderate to fresh E trades are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, building high pressure to the north will strengthen the E trades across the central/E Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic Sun and Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge centered near the NW Bahamas sustains moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle flow prevails. A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central Atlantic, along 25N between 34W and 44W. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of the trough according to latest scatterometer data. Moderate seas prevail in this area along with scattered showers. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure will shift east through tonight, allowing SW winds to increase up to strong or near-gale between NE Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Fri afternoon and reach from 31N60W to S Florida Sat morning. Looking ahead, the front will lift northward as a warm front Sun morning, ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach from 31N74W to the Florida Straits by Mon morning. $$ ERA