000 AXNT20 KNHC 311040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jan 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N09W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 02S22W to 02N35W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 05N between 35W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted north of the front, over the coastal waters. Moist air near the front is also a focus for dense fog this morning across the coastal waters from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front off the Texas and Louisiana coast will move little through mid week. Another push of cold air will move the front more rapidly Thu. This front will then move E across the Gulf through Fri, bringing fresh to strong N winds in its wake. Gales are expected Fri offshore Veracruz, Mexico, behind the front. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat across the basin as high pressure builds over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. High pressure centered north of the northern Bahamas and east of northeast Florida is supporting fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America is supporting a large band of fresh winds, pulsing to gale force off the higher terrain along the coast of Colombia. Seas are moderate to rough in these areas. Fresh E winds are noted across the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. For the forecast, strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sat. These winds will pulse to and gale force late evening to early morning hours through Thu. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A few showers and thunderstorms are evident along a cold front extending east-to-west along 30N, west of 75W. Ridging along 28N west of 55W is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N, except for a small area of fresh to strong winds near the entrance to the Windward Passage with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle breezes and slight seas are evident north of 22N, west of 55W. Farther east, a trough along 53W is supporting gentle breezes south of 22N across the western tropical Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft seas in NE swell. Another trough is evident along 35W between 15W and 25W. Fresh NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are evident both north and south of this trough. Farther east, moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted. For the forecast, the high pressure along 28N will shift east through mid week ahead of a weak cold front that will stall along 30N through Thu. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase Thu night and Fri between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of another cold front. The cold front will move into the region Fri night and reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat. $$ Christensen