000 AXNT20 KNHC 310558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jan 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through Thursday. The sea heights are forecast to range from 10 feet to 12 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 05N09W, to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W, through the Equator along 18W, to 02S23W, through the Equator along 28W, to 01N34W, through the Equator along 35W, to 02S37W, to 03S41W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N southward between 07W and 22W, and from 07N southward between 32W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is along 31N/32N from 70W westward. The stationary front is inland, from 30N to 31N from SE Georgia to SE Louisiana. The rest of the stationary front, continues from SE Louisiana, to the Deep South of Texas, and northern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the Gulf of Mexico, except for the SW corner of the area. A surface trough extends from the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula into the southern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 22N southward from 90W westward. Gentle to moderate winds, or slower wind speeds, cover the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet, with some areas of 1 foot to 3 feet in the SE corner. Light onshore winds and abundant low level moisture are allowing for some areas of dense fog, in the the coastal plains and in the coastal waters, that are Florida near the Tampa metropolitan area northwestward and westward, to the Deep South of Texas. The visibilities are less than one mile with fog in some cases, and ranging from 3 miles to 5 miles or less, in the other cases. The marine conditions will improve throughout the afternoon of Tuesday. Dense fog is expected to return during the overnight and morning hours, through Wednesday. A stationary front just offshore the Texas and Louisiana coast will remain stalled into Wed night, before another push of cold air transitions it to a cold front by Thu. This front will then move E across the Gulf through Fri, bringing fresh to strong N winds in its wake. Gales are expected Fri offshore Veracruz, Mexico, behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING that was issued for the coastal waters of Colombia. Patches of shallow moisture are moving through the Caribbean Sea, resulting in isolated to scattered weak showers. Fresh to strong ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet, are in the central one-third of the area, and in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate wind speeds cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one-third of the area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the western one-third of the area. Strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia into Fri. These winds will pulse to and gale force late evening to early morning hours. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 52W/53W from 22N to 30N. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, is from 20N to 30N between 40W and 56W. A surface trough is along 33W/35W, from 20N to 30N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N to 30N between 30W and 40W. A surface trough is along 19N43W 10N49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 10N to 21N between 35W and 50W. A stationary front is along 31N/32N from 70W westward. The stationary front is inland, from 30N to 31N from SE Georgia to SE Louisiana. The rest of the stationary front, continues from SE Louisiana, to the Deep South of Texas, and northern Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are from 24N southward from 70W westward. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere from 24N northward from 70W westward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet from 03N to 17N between 30W and 46W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet: from 30N northward between 40W and 50W, and from 20N northward between 50W and 60W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 28N southward between 60W and 70W. Moderate to fresh winds are from 03N to 15N between 25W and 40W, from 24N northward between 30W and 46W, and from 17N to 28N between 56W and 70W. Gentle to moderate wind speeds, or slower, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure that is centered to the north of the area will support fresh E winds and higher seas south of 25N tonight, before weakening, allowing winds and seas to diminish Tue. A weak cold front will reach along 30N on Tue, then meander in the vicinity into late week. SW winds may increase Thu night and Fri for waters offshore of northeast Florida, in advance of another cold front. $$ mt/ec