000 AXNT20 KNHC 291729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jan 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A recent scatterometer pass and recent ship observations observed near-gale to gale force winds this morning within 60 nm offshore of NW Colombia. Winds will diminish slightly today; however, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia tonight, Mon night, and possibly Tue and Wed nights. Seas will build to 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Marine conditions will continue to improve slightly during the day. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the African coast near the Guinea/Sierra Leone border and extends southwestward to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to 02N35W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N between the west coast of Africa and 19W. Similar convection is noted south of the ITCZ from 03N to 02N between 19W and 31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaching west-southwestward from northern Florida to near the Texas/Mexico border dominates the entire Gulf with fair conditions. A recent scatterometer pass, along with recent buoy observations, indicated fresh to strong SE winds are over the northwestern Gulf, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh winds are also noted over the eastern Gulf, east of 86W, including in the Straits of Florida where seas are 4 to 6 ft and up to 8 ft within the Straits. Moderate to fresh SE winds cover the remainder of the basin with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, the ridge dominating the Gulf waters and will sustain fresh easterly winds across the northwestern Gulf and Strait of Florida until later this afternoon. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf this evening, then stall and dissipate across the northern Gulf by Mon night. Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail for the entire Gulf through Thu. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by late Thu, and reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are present over the basin west of 68W, including the Windward Passage. Moderate with locally fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin east of 68W. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south- central Caribbean, reaching minimal gale force at night near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period. Fresh to strong easterly trades will prevail south of Cuba until late this morning, and near the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Over the western part of the basin, a stationary front enters near 31N58W and extends southwestward to the central Bahamas, where it is beginning to weaken. Patchy showers continue within 100 nm of this boundary, north of 28N. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong NNE-NE winds due to a pressure gradient mainly west of 50W from the Caribbean Islands, the stationary front, including over the Greater Antilles and entering the windward Passage. Fresh winds are also noted north of the front, north of 29N. Seas in these areas of wind are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted. In the central basin, three surface troughs linger, noted in recent scatterometer data. A surface trough stretches from 31N45W to 22N50W. This surface trough allows for the tight pressure gradient mentioned above and supports the fresh to strong winds west of 50W. A very elongated surface trough stretches from 24N39W southwestward to 14N53W. A 1015 mb low is noted along the trough near 22N45W. Light to gentle winds are noted surrounding this feature; however, seas remain 6 to 10 ft north of about 20N in NE swell. The easternmost trough stretching from 23N34W to 18N40W intercepts an area of high pressure, causing another tight pressure gradient and supports fresh to strong SE winds north of 17N to 25N between 31W and the trough. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted south of 17N between the west coast of Africa and about 45W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary is anticipated to gradually dissipate Mon. Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas across the waters S of 25N, including the Bahamas, Great Bahama Bank, the approach to the Windward Passage, and the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico through Mon morning. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the western Atlantic late on Mon. $$ Mora