000 AXNT20 KNHC 291203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jan 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia early this morning, tonight and Mon night; and possibly Tue and Wed nights. Seas will build to 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Marine conditions will improve slightly during the day. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the African coast near the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea border and extends westward to 10N20W. No significant convection is found near the trough. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 10N20W across 03N35W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 200 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaching west-southwestward from northern Florida to near the Texas/Mexico border dominates the entire Gulf with fair conditions. Recent buoy and coastal observations indicated fresh winds are from the SE at the northwestern Gulf, and E at the southeastern Gulf. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft at both areas. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, a 1029 mb high off the Georgia coast will sustain fresh easterly winds across the northwestern Gulf and Strait of Florida until later this afternoon. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf this evening, then stall and dissipate across the northern Gulf by Mon night. Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail for the entire Gulf through Thu. Winds and seas at the western Gulf should build by Thu evening as a strong cold front arrives. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A fair trade-wind regime continues for the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are present at the south-central and north-central basin, including the Windward Passage and south of Cuba. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, near-gale to gale ENE trades at the south- central Caribbean Sea will continue until early this morning, then become fresh to strong by mid morning. They are expected to reach gale force again this and Mon evenings, and possibly on Tue and Wed evenings. Fresh to strong easterly trades will prevail south of Cuba until late this morning, and near the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through midweek next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening cold front extends from northeast of Bermuda across 31N60W to 28N66W, then continues as a stationary front to near the Central Bahamas. Patchy showers are occurring near and up to 100 nm north of this boundary. An upper-level low near 24N40W is triggering moderate scattered convection north of 16N between 30W and 44W. Despite gentle to moderate easterly winds, seas at 8 to 11 ft in easterly swell are found north of 21N between 30W and 50W. To the west, fresh NNE to NE trades with 6 to 8 ft seas exist north of 19N between 50W and the aforementioned frontal boundary. From the frontal boundary westward to the Georgia-Florida coast, gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are noted north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. Farther south near the Cabo Verde Islands, fresh with locally strong NE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from 08N to 20N between the central African coast and 40W. At the central Atlantic, gentle ENE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen from 05N to 21N between 41W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary is anticipated to gradually dissipate Mon. A tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas across the Bahamas, including the Great Bahama Bank, and near the Windward Passage and northeast of Puerto Rico through Tue. Southerly flow will increase offshore northeastern Florida this evening ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic by Mon. $$ Forecaster Chan