000 AXNT20 KNHC 280545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jan 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between a 1011 mb low pressure centered near 26N42W and a 1042 mb high pressure centered over the north-central Atlantic will continue to support frequent gusts to near gale- force persisting into this morning. Scattered showers and seas will range from 11 to 15 ft within 240 nm northeast of the low pressure. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through late today as the low weakens and shifts northwest. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information on this gale warning. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting easterly gales and seas of 10 to 11 ft off the coast of Colombia. Conditions will improve slightly during today, but gale conditions will pulse up again tonight and likely Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough terminates over western Africa before reaching the Atlantic Ocean. The ITCZ then continues from 03N18W to near the mouth of the Amazon River, Brazil near 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the Liberia coast from 02N to 05N between 08W and 15W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure centered over south Georgia is maintaining dry conditions, with no significant convection evident across the basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring from the Straits of Florida to off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, with rough seas in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, no significant changes through late today. Southerly return flow will increase over the northwest Gulf beginning tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the northern Gulf on Sun, then stall and dissipate on Mon. Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail for the entire Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more information about a Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola, associated with high pressure building over the southeast United States and western Atlantic. Strong to near-gale force trade winds persist across much of the south-central and southwest Caribbean. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this time across the basin. For the forecast, near-gale to gale trades will continue over the south-central Caribbean Sea overnight, before decreasing to between fresh and strong later this morning. They will reach gale force again this evening, and possible Sun evening. Fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. A weakening stationary front just south of western Cuba will dissipate by Sat morning. Strengthening high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds across the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba tonight through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a a Gale Warning near 28N40W. Aside from the low pressure producing the gales mentioned in the Special Features section above, the only other notable feature in the basin is a stationary front that stretches from Bermuda through the central Bahamas into the Straits of Florida. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident near the front. A scatterometer satellite pass from around 02 UTC showed fresh to strong NE winds west of this boundary over the eastern approaches to the Straits of Florida west of Andros Island. Fresh E winds are likely north of Haiti, impacting the Atlantic approaches to the Windward Passage. Aside of from the gales and very rough seas near the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh winds and rough seas are evident north of 20N east of 60W to the coast of northwest Africa. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient across the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the Bahamas, including the Great Bahama Bank and north of the Windward passage tonight through Sun. Southerly flow will increase offshore NE Florida by Sun night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Mon. $$ Christensen