000 AXNT20 KNHC 272220 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between a 1008 mb low pressure centered near 24N40W and a 1042 mb high pressure centered over the north-central Atlantic will continue to support frequent gusts to near gale- force persisting into Sat morning. Seas will range from 11 to 15 ft in this area. Scattered moderate convection is observed across the NE periphery of the low north of 22N between 31W and 43W. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through Sat as the low weakens and shifts NW. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information on this gale warning. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting easterly gales and seas of 10 to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia. Conditions will improve slightly during the day Sat, but gale conditions will pulse up again Sat night and likely Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches into the Atlantic waters through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N14W to 05N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N17W across 02N30W to near the mouth of the Amazon River, Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast east of 15W and south of the monsoon trough to 03N. Another area of scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ west of 20W from 06N southward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure across the United States Gulf Coast is maintaining dry conditions, with no significant convection evident across the basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring in the S and SE Gulf as well as the eastern Bay of Campeche, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure shifting eastward across the Gulf States into the western Atlantic will introduce fresh to strong easterly winds across the the southern Gulf and the Strait of Florida this evening through Sun. Southerly return flow will increase over the NW Gulf beginning tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the northern Gulf on Sun, then stall and dissipate on Mon. Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail for the entire Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more information about a Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. A weak stationary front over western Cuba transitions to a trough over the far NW Caribbean and extends SW to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm behind the boundary. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are evident across the central and SW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NW winds have also developed late this afternoon in the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft exist across the northwestern part of the basin, while gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south- central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period. A weakening stationary front over the NW Caribbean will dissipate by tonight. Strengthening high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds across the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba tonight through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a a Gale Warning near 30N36W. Aside from the low pressure producing the gales mentioned in the Special Features section above, the only other notable feature in the basin is a cold front that stretches from to 27N71W. The boundary transitions to a stationary front from 27N71W and continues across the northwest Bahamas to northwestern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm on either side of the stationary portion of the boundary. To the east of the low and N of 18N, extending E to the African coast, fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail with seas of 7 to 11 ft in N swell. To the W, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5 o 8 ft are occurring N of 18N between 45W and 60W. Also, S of 23N, similar conditions are observed N of the Greater Antilles. Elsewhere between the frontal boundary and the low, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail. Behind the front, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are observed. Mainly gentle trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the remainder of the Tropical Atlantic Basin south of 18N. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach from 31N66W to the central Bahamas by tonight, and from 31N62W to the central Bahamas by Sat afternoon while weakening. Then, the front will lift northward and dissipate on Sun. A tight pressure gradient across the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the Bahamas, including the Great Bahama Bank and north of the Windward passage tonight through Sun. Southerly flow will increase offshore NE Florida by Sun night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Mon. $$ KONARIK