513 AXNT20 KNHC 271648 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jan 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 24N40W and a 1042 mb high pressure centered over the north-central Atlantic will continue to support minimal gale-force winds near 30N34W through tonight with frequent gusts to near gale-force persisting through tomorrow morning. Seas will peak at 11 to 15 ft in this area as well. Scattered to moderate convection is observed across the NE periphery of the low north of 22N between 31W and 43W. Winds and seas will gradually diminish this evening through Sat as the low weakens and shifts westward. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information on this gale warning. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting easterly gales and seas of 10 to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia. Conditions will improve by this afternoon, but are expected to reach gale-force again tonight and Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches into the Atlantic waters through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N16W to 05N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N17W across 02N30W to near the mouth of the Amazon River, Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast east of 15W and south of the monsoon trough to 03N. Another area of scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ west of 20W from 06N southward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad high pressure across the United States Gulf coast is maintaining dry conditions, with no significant convection evident across the basin. A recent scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft across the east and southeast Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Outside of light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft across the northwestern Gulf, gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the high pressure shifting eastward across the Gulf States will introduce fresh to strong easterly winds across the the southern Gulf and the Strait of Florida this evening through Sat night. Southerly return flow will increase over the NW Gulf beginning tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the northern Gulf on Sun, then stall and dissipate on Mon. Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail for the entire Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more information about a Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia. A modest stationary front reaches southwestward from the western end of Cuba to 20N86W and transitions to a surface trough at 15Z that extends to the coast of Honduras near Le Ceiba. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough west of 85W. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to near- gale ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are evident across the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft exist across the northwestern part of the basin, while gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the Gulf. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period. A weakening stationary front over the NW Caribbean will dissipate by tonight. Strengthening high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds across the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba tonight through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a a Gale Warning near 30N34W. Aside from the low pressure mentioned in the special features section above, the only other notable feature in the basin is a cold front that stretches from northwest of Bermuda across 31N68W to 27N72W. The boundary transitions to a stationary front from 27N72W and continues across the northwest Bahamas to northwestern Cuba. Patchy showers are observed within 40 nm on either side of the stationary front between 77W and 80W. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft in northerly swell are seen north of 18N between the northwest African coast and 35W, including the Canary Islands. Further west, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are occurring south of a line from 31N55W to the coast of Hispaniola near 20N73W, including the Lesser Antilles. North of the line and between the cold front, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail. Behind the front, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are observed. Light to gentle trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the remainder of the Tropical Atlantic Basin south of 18N. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach from 31N66W to the central Bahamas by tonight, and from 31N57W to the central Bahamas by Sat night while weakening. Then, the front will lift northward and dissipate on Sun. A tight pressure gradient across the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the Bahamas, including the Great Bahama Bank and north of the Windward passage tonight through Sun. Southerly flow will increase offshore NE Florida by Sun night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Mon. $$ Nepaul