000 AXNT20 KNHC 260605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jan 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: Tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and Colombia Low will cause easterly winds at the south-central Caribbean Sea, just north of Colombia to reach near-gale to gale force late Thu evening through early Fri morning. These winds are expected to decrease to between strong and near-gale by late Fri morning. However, they will become near-gale to gale again during Sat and Sun nights. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft during gale conditions, and at 7 to 10 ft during the day. ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING: A 1008 mb low pressure well northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 24N36W is going to gradually drift westward over the next several days. Meanwhile, a strong surface ridge is expected to build southwestward from north of the Azores. Increasing gradient will produce strong to gale southerly winds northeast of the low near 30N35W Fri morning through Fri evening. Combined seas are anticipated to range from 12 to 14 ft during gales. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecasts at the website https://www.nch.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information about both warnings. Both forecasts are issued by the National Hurricane Center. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough reaches southwestward, passes through the African coast near the Guinea-Sierra Leone border to 05N19W. An ITCZ then continues from 05N19W across EQ24W to 03S31W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Sierra Leone coast, and up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Big Band area to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are seen up to 60 nm northwest, and 130 nm southeast of the front. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Yucatan Channel. A 1027 mb high over northern Texas is channeling northerly winds behind the front, moderate to fresh across the northern Gulf, fresh to strong with locally near-gale over the west-central and southwest Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Seas at 4 to 7 ft are found across the northern Gulf, and 8 to 11 ft at the west-central and southwest Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Tampa Bay, FL to the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and exit the basin early Thu afternoon. Near-gale force northerly winds offshore Veracruz will diminish to fresh to strong late tonight. Elsewhere, winds and seas will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up this weekend in the northwestern Gulf in response to the next cold front that will be approaching the northwestern Gulf. This front is expected to move into the far northern Gulf Sun and Sun night, and stall through Mon night. Fresh to strong E winds will surge from the SW Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into the far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night before diminishing Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information on a Gale Warning. A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1029 mb Bermuda High continues to maintain an easterly trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Fresh to strong E to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-central and central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas exist at the north- central basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are found across the eastern and southwestern basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle ESE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel on Thu, enter the northwestern Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then stall and dissipate. Strong NE to E winds are expected to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba Sat through late Sun. Similar winds will continue in the Windward Passage Mon and Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information on a Gale Warning. Two upper-level lows, one south of the Azores near 29N33W and the other southwest of the Azores near 27N43W are triggering scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 26W and 33W, and north of 24N between 42W and 48W. A weakening cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N47W to 25N52W to 24N61W. Patchy showers are evident near and up to 70 nm east and south of this feature. Converging southerly winds are causing scattered showers over central and northeastern Florida, and adjacent waters. Convergent trades are generating numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms near Belem and Sao Luis, Brazil and nearby Atlantic waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are found north of 28N between 75W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in northerly swell are present north of 26N between 37W and 75W. Fresh to strong NE to SE trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are seen near the Canary Islands north of 23N between the northwest African coast and 37W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE trades with 4 to 7 ft seas are noted from 20N to 28N between 75W and the southeastern Florida coast, and from 05N to 26N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles. Despite gentle to moderate winds surrounding a broad 1008 mb low near 24N36W, 8 to 11 ft seas in northerly swell are dominating from 15N to 26N between 30W and 52W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh winds are north of the weakening cold front. The front will shift southeast of the area early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly flow is ongoing across the northeastern and central Florida offshore waters ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight. This front is expected to reach from near 31N74W to the northwest Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W to central Cuba early Fri. It will locate from near 31N61W to 25N70W, and become stationary to central Cuba by Sat afternoon. A tight gradient will create fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas within about 180 nm north of the stationary front late Fri night through early Sun, especially over the Bahamas, Windward Passage and Straits of Florida. Conditions improve late Sun afternoon into Sun night. A cold front may move off northeastern Florida early next week. $$ Forecaster Chan