000 AXNT20 KNHC 252340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: High pressure north of the Caribbean combined with low pressure over N South America is forcing strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the E and central Caribbean. The pressure gradient tightens beginning Thu night forcing near gale to minimal gale-force winds mainly late night and early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Seas should reach around 12 ft over and westward of these gale force winds. Pulsing gale conditions should continue through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: A 1007 mb low is centered near 24N36W with a cold front extending from near the center to 21N38W to 23N43W. While winds currently are only peaking at fresh northerlies west of the center and strong easterlies northeast of the center, large N swell is occurring north of 20N between 35N-45W. A cold front approaching the low from the west will strengthen the NE winds west of the center and build a large area of 8-12 ft seas north of 20N and east of 60W on Thu and Fri. Also on Fri, a building high northeast of the low will help force minimal gale force SE winds near 30N35W with seas reaching near 15 ft. Winds and seas should steadily diminish on Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information about both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 06N between 08W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W southwestward to the Bay of Campeche near 08N94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and ahead of the front north of 25N. Winds ahead of the front are only moderate to fresh southwesterlies, but are strong to near gale NW to N winds behind the front. Seas are 6-11 ft behind the front. The highest winds and seas are in the Bay of Campeche and ship 9V328 reported 40 kt NW earlier today just offshore of Veracruz. For the forecast, the front will reach from from Tampa Bay, FL to the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and exit the basin early Thu afternoon. Near-gale force north winds offshore Veracruz will diminish to fresh to strong late tonight. Elsewhere, winds and seas will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set-up this weekend in the NW Gulf in response to the next cold front that will be approaching the NW Gulf. This front is expected to move into the far northern Gulf Sun and Sun night, and stall through Mon night. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the southwestern Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into the far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night and diminish Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the Gale-force Wind Warning that was issued for the S central Caribbean Sea. High pressure north of the Caribbean combined with low pressure over N South America is forcing strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the E and central Caribbean. Seas are 7-10 ft in the central and SW Caribbean, 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 4-7 ft in the E Caribbean. No deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean today. For the forecast aside from the S Central Caribbean gale, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through this evening. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then stall and dissipate. Strong northeast to east winds are expected to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba Sat through late Sun. Similar winds continue in the Windward Passage Mon and Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the Atlantic Ocean Gale-force Wind Warning. A 1007 mb low is centered near 24N36W with a cold front extending from near the center to 21N38W to 23N43W. While winds currently are only peaking at fresh northerlies west of the center and strong easterlies northeast of the center, large N swell is occurring north of 20N between 35N-45W. Another associated boundary is an occluded front from 30N35W to 28N28W transitioning to a cold front extending to 15N56W. Strong NE to E winds are observed north of 25N east of 30W with seas 8-12 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 25N between 25W-33W. Another cold front extends from 31N48W to 27N69W, then transitioning to a trough to 27N76W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are behind the front with seas 8-10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 28N between 42W-47W. Finally, fresh to strong S winds are occurring east of the N Florida peninsula with seas to 8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the westernmost front will shift southeast of the area early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly flow will continue tonight off northern and central Florida ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on this evening. This front is expected to reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W to central Cuba early Fri, and from near 31N61W to 25N70W and becoming stationary to central Cuba by Sat afternoon. A tight gradient will create fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas within about 180 NM north of the stationary front late Fri night through early Sun, especially over the Bahamas, Windward Passage and Straits of Florida. Conditions improve late on Sun into Sun night. A cold front may move off northeast Florida early next week. $$ Landsea