000 AXNT20 KNHC 241142 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jan 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong low pressure system will develop over south Texas today and move NE across the southern U.S. The low will drag a strong cold front across the Gulf of Mexico late this afternoon through Thu. Near gale to gale-force southerly winds and building seas to around 10-14 ft are expected ahead of the front over the NW and north-central Gulf today and tonight. Within 60 nm of the coast from SE Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, sustained winds of 25-40 kt with a few gusts reaching 50 kt are expected late this afternoon through tonight. Behind the front, near-gale to gale-force northwest winds are forecast over the NW Gulf. Gale-force winds are also likely offshore Tampico tonight, and offshore Veracruz tonight into Wed in the wake of the front with seas to around 12 ft. Winds and seas will then gradually subside across the basin by the end of the week. Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N31W and continues SW through 25N33W to 21N40W to 21N48W. The parent low pressure will drift southward into the discussion waters later today, while associated gale-force winds have already spread from west of the cold front to about 42W per an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass. Seas are peaking around 20 ft now through this afternoon. Winds will diminish below gale-force by late tonight, after midnight, however, very large and dangerous seas will continue to propagate across the forecast waters into late week. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulsing winds to gale force in the south-central Caribbean through the next several days, mainly at night until around sunrise each morning. Seas will build to around 13 ft during the period of gale-force winds. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information on all of the Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, and continues SW to 03N20W to 00N30W. The ITCZ extends from 00N30W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 08N between 05W and 30W. Isolated moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ where it approaches the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Storm Warning in the Gulf of Mexico. A weak stationary front extends from 24N81W to 22N90W. 1028 mb high pressure over northern Mississippi spreads ridging into the NE and central Gulf of Mexico, where moderate to fresh E winds prevail along with 4-5 ft seas. Strong SE winds have developed over the NW and west-central Gulf, where recent buoy data shows seas to 9 ft. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail over the central Gulf and 6-9 ft over the western Gulf. For the forecast, the weakening stationary front is expected to dissipate later this morning. High pressure centered over the SE U.S. will slide eastward through late today as a low pressure system develops over eastern Texas, and quickly tracks east- northeastward across the southern U.S. while deepening. The low will drag a strong cold front across the Gulf of Mexico late this afternoon through Thu. A line of showers and thunderstorms is likely with the cold front. Near gale-force to gale-force S winds are expected ahead of the front over the NW and north-central Gulf today and tonight, and near gale-force northwest winds are expected over the NW Gulf this evening. Gale-force winds are expected offshore Tampico late tonight, and offshore Veracruz Wed in the wake of the front. Winds and seas will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh southerly return flow will begin to set-up in the far western Gulf starting Sat in response to the next cold front that will be approaching the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the southwestern Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into the far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern coast of Colombia. Strong trade winds prevail over the central Caribbean Sea to the south of 16.5N between 67W-79W, with fresh trades elsewhere east of 81W and south of 18N. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Recent altimeter data from 24/0700 UTC show seas of 10-11 ft from 12N-14N between 77W-78W. Seas are likely as high as 12 ft off the coast of Colombia. Seas of 8 ft or higher prevail in the strong wind area of the central Caribbean. Seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere, except for 4-6 ft in the NW basin. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Near gale to minimal gale force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern and north- central Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then stall and dissipate. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the wake of the front will prevail in the northwest and north-central Caribbean through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the central Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from near 31N68W to across the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Fresh to strong winds prevail on either side of the front, mainly north of 29N between 60W-70W along with seas of 8-11 ft. Fresh N winds are elsewhere NW of the front. A ridge extends ahead of the front from near 31N51W SW to 26N60W to 25N72W. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell are under the ridge west of 53W, locally fresh offshore northern Hispaniola. North of 20N between 24W-52W, the waters are dominated by the gale-force low described in the Special Features section. Fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are south of 20N and west of 40W. Mainly gentle to moderate trades and 5-7 ft seas in mixed NE and NW swell prevail elsewhere, except for the area between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco, where strong NNE winds and 8-9 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front is expected to reach from near 31N60W to 26N70W and stationary to east-central Cuba by early this afternoon. The front will shift east of 55W on Wed. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds behind the front will diminish by this afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly flow develops Wed over the northwest waters ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Wed evening. This front is expected to reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida Thu afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W, to central Cuba early Fri, and from near 31N64W to 27N69W and becomes stationary to central Cuba by late Sat. A tight gradient will create fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas within about 180 nm north of the stationary front. $$ Hagen