000 AXNT20 KNHC 231059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jan 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea will pulse to minimal gale force tonight, and again Tue night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas will build to around 12 ft during the period of gale-force winds. Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N42W to 24N54W to 26N62W. The parent low pressure will drift southward into the discussion waters, with gale-force winds spreading west of the front later this morning. Winds of near-gale to gale will be possible through Tue, mainly north of 28N and east of 43W. Winds will diminish below gale-force Tue night. Seas in the area of gale-force winds will peak near 19 ft tonight into Tue. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A low pressure will form over east Texas Tue and move NE across the SE US. It will drag a cold front across the Gulf. Near gale force winds are likely Tue and Tue night across the NW and north-central Gulf, moreso in advance of the front, but also behind the front, with frequent gusts to gale force. Seas off Texas and Louisiana will build to 11 to 13 ft. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information on all three Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 07N12W to 00N27W. The ITCZ extends from 00N27W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02S to 06N between 07W and 21W, and from 01S to 03N between 21W and the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the NW Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from Sarasota Florida to 21N91W to 21N94W, then it is a stationary front to 18N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 60 nm southeast of the front, mainly east of 85.5W from 24.5N to 27N. Fresh NE winds are occurring over most of the Gulf behind the front. Recent buoy and altimeter data show seas of 6 to 8 ft across much of the Gulf behind the front, except for 5 ft in the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate SW winds are over the far SE Gulf, ahead of the front, with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening before weakening as it exits the basin. Fresh north winds behind the front will diminish today as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward across southeastern U.S. A strong low pressure system will develop over east Texas Tue and move NE across the southern U.S. The low will drag a strong cold front across the Gulf of Mexico late Tue afternoon through Thu. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the NW and north-central Gulf Tue and Tue night on both sides of the front, with an area of gale force winds in the NW Gulf late Tue afternoon into Tue evening. Gale force winds are also possible offshore Veracruz Wed in the wake of the front. Winds and seas across the basin will then gradually subside by Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern coast of Colombia. Strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean with seas 8-10 ft. Fresh winds are in the E Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas. Fresh winds are found in the Gulf of Honduras with seas up to 5-6 ft. Moderate winds prevail north and west of Jamaica with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over most of the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Near gale to minimal gale force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia through the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern and north-central Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then stall and dissipate. Fresh northeast winds in the wake of the front will prevail in the northwest and north-central Caribbean even after the front dissipates. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the Atlantic waters from 28N-31N between 35W-43W. A cold front extends from 31N78.5W to Titusville, FL. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 75 nm SE of the front. Strong to locally near-gale force S to SW winds are occurring east of the front to 71W, mainly N of 29N. Seas of 7-10 ft are likely occurring in this area. Farther E, a cold front extends from 31N42W to 24N54W to 26N62W with a surface trough continuing to 27.5N68.5W. Strong to near gale force NW winds are W of the front to 50W, mainly N of 28.5N, where seas are likely in the 10-14 ft range. A surface ridge extends from 31N58W to 27N66W to the Bahamas near 25N76W. The surface ridge is split by the aforementioned surface trough, but winds are generally weaker near the surface ridge compared to the two stronger wind areas to the west and east. More surface ridging and light winds are apparent near 24N39W. In the tropical Atlantic waters to the south, fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds and 7-9 ft seas prevail from 03N-17N and west of 40W. Fresh to strong NE winds extend from Morocco through the Canary Islands, with seas 8-11 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, The cold front extending from 24N54W to 26N62W will shift southeast of 55W today. The new cold front off NE Florida is expected to reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late today, from near 31N61W to 26N70W and stationary to east-central Cuba by early Tue, then shift east of 55W Wed. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected behind the front along with building seas through mid-week. Marine conditions improve Thu through Fri night. $$ Hagen