000 AXNT20 KNHC 210125 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the W coast of Africa near 08N13W to 03N20W to 00N28W. The ITCZ continues from 00N28W to 01S40W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N to 07N between 10W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07S to 03N between 21W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary front stretches from south of Tampa Bay, Florida to 25N93W then transitions to a warm front that continues to a 1014 mb low over NE Mexico near 25N07W. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the NW Gulf with moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas across the rest of the northern Gulf N of 26N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with the strongest winds in the NW basin and to 3 ft elsewhere where light to gentle variable winds dominate. Scattered showers are occurring in the SE gulf associated with the front. For the forecast, the low pressure will lift northward as a warm front. Strong winds and rough seas are expected through Sat in the northern and western Gulf waters as the low pressure and associated frontal boundary meanders in these areas. By Sun, a cold front will push eastward across the Gulf with fresh to strong winds and moderate seas following it. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mainly fresh trade winds remain across the eastern half of the Caribbean and the SW basin, except for strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and within 210 nm off the coast of NW Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds remain in the NW Caribbean with locally fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5 to 7 ft E of 82W, except for 7 to 9 ft in the area of strong winds. In the NW basin, seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range. Otherwise, deep layered dry air maintains fair weather basin-wide. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through at least Wednesday night. Winds could approach near gale-force closer to the Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure is centered between Puerto Rico and Bermuda. Behind the center of high pressure, a cold front extends from 30N72W to Jupiter, Florida this evening. The pressure gradient between these two features is supporting moderate to fresh winds behind the front and fresh to strong winds ahead of it. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with these winds N of 27N. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the SW N Atlantic waters. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N42W to 24N50W to 22N59W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of this front, which main impact at the moment is mixed swell of 7 to 9 ft. High pressure surface ridging is across the remainder E Atlantic subtropical waters where a tight pressure gradient supports fresh to strong NE winds across the Canary Islands adjacent waters with seas to 11 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, winds to strong speeds associated with the cold front along with moderate to rough seas can be expected along the frontal boundary as it propagates eastward through the weekend and staying N of 27N. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off the Florida coast on Sun ahead of another cold front that is expected to push off Sun night into Mon morning. Fresh to strong W to NW winds will prevail behind the front with building seas. $$ Ramos