000 AXNT20 KNHC 191804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jan 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern Liberia near 05N08W, to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W, to 02N30W, and to the Equator along 40W. The ITCZ is not continuous, because of a 01N42W 00N44W 03S44W surface trough. The ITCZ also is along 05N49W 07N54W 06N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 30W and 60W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 23N. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 23N96W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward from 88W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N to the cold front between 92W and the coasts of Texas and Mexico. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 90W westward, and from 3 feet to 4 feet from 90W eastward. An isolated area of 6 feet for the sea height is near the westernmost part of the Florida Panhandle. Moderate to fresh winds are from 90W eastward, and near the cold front. Light to gentle wind speeds are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front stretches from the western Florida Panhandle to the northern Mexico coast. Fresh N winds and moderate seas prevail behind the front. The front will stall from Tampa Bay, Florida to northern Mexico by Fri morning. Low pressure may form on the western edge of the front in the western Gulf on Fri and move northward. Strong winds are expected to develop this weekend in the northern and western Gulf waters as the low pressure and associated frontal boundary meanders northward on Fri into Sat, and will push east by Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near gale-force winds, and sea heights that have been ranging from 9 feet to 10 feet, are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the eastern one-third of the area. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet, elsewhere, in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds are in the remainder of the central one- third of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Fresh to strong winds have been in the NW corner of the area. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south central Caribbean Sea, and near the coast of Colombia, through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras today into tonight, and then pulse moderate to fresh through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Gale-force winds were present, a few hours ago, in the METEO-FRANCE marine area AGADIR. The gale-force wind warning for that marine area has ended. Expect NE winds from strong to near gale-force from 27N northward from 20W eastward. The comparatively fastest wind speeds that are in this area will be closer to the coast of Africa. Expect the sea heights to range from 7 feet to 15 feet from 24N northward from 30W eastward. The comparatively highest sea heights that are in this area will be closer to the coast. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 31N49W 27N55W 25N56W 24N60W 22N63W 19N65W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 100 nm on either side of the surface trough, and elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 24N southward from 65W westward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 09N northward between 40W and 50W. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 28N43W 12N41W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the east of the surface trough from 20N to 29N. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N northward between 30W and 46W. Fresh to strong winds are from 10N to 21N from 30W eastward, and from 26N northward, elsewhere from 30W eastward. Mostly fresh winds are from 15N northward between 30W and 40W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward, and from 27N northward between 40W and 70W. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 27N68W. Moderate wind speeds or slower are in most of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 40W westward. Some exceptions are: mostly fresh winds that are within 100 nm to the W/NW of the 20N65W-24N58W surface trough, and within 120 nm to the north of Cuba and Haiti between Haiti and 77W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 18N northward from 50W westward. High pressure will build across the area, and become centered between Puerto Rico and Bermuda into late week. On the NW periphery of this ridge, fresh to strong SW winds will develop offshore NE Florida today ahead of an approaching front. The front will push off the NE Florida coast early Fri morning with fresh to strong ahead and behind the front and moderate to rough seas. This front will quickly propagate eastward through the weekend and staying N of 28N. $$ mt/ar