000 AXNT20 KNHC 190828 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jan 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1037 mb high pressure over the Azores and low pressure over northwest Africa associated with a cold front that extends from off the coast of Morocco to just south of the Canary Islands and northwest to 28N27W is inducing north to northeast gale-force winds near the coast of Morocco, in the Meteo-France marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Meteo-France is forecasting that these conditions will continue through early Thu evening, local time. The Outlook, for the 24 hours that follows the forecast that is valid until 20/0000 UTC consists of the persistence of northeast gale force winds for marine zones Agadir and Canarias. Seas of 14-18 ft are likely within the gale-force wind-affected marine zones. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 01N27W to 01N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 32W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Louisiana to southern Texas with a surface trough over the SW Gulf. High pressure prevails across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the Gulf waters E of 90W. Light to gentle winds are W of 90W, reaching moderate speeds in the vicinity of the cold front. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by this afternoon. Fresh N winds will prevail behind the front. Low pressure may form on the western edge of the front in the western Gulf late this week and move northward. Strong winds are expected to develop this weekend in the northern and western Gulf waters as the low pressure and associated frontal boundary moves eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail across the central Caribbean as well as the far NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For conditions north of 29N and east of 20W, which is north of the Canary Islands and west of Morocco, please see the Special Features section above. A surface trough extends from 30N51W to just N of the Virgin Islands. A second surface trough is found from 29N43W to 20N42W. High pressure prevails elsewhere. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 20N and W of 40W, with moderate to fresh winds noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range N of 20N and W of 50W, and 7-10 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the area, and become centered between Puerto Rico and Bermuda into late week. On the NW periphery of this ridge, fresh to strong SW winds will develop offshore NE Florida today and Fri, quickly propagating eastward into early in the weekend and staying N of 28N. $$ AL