000
AXNT20 KNHC 152329
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front east and southeast of 
Bermuda will sustain near-gale to gale force winds north of 27N 
between 57W and 61W through early Mon morning. Seas are peaking 
at 15 to 17 ft in this area. Both winds and seas will gradually 
subside starting Mon afternoon.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshores Waters
Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
Both products are issued by the National Hurricane Center.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 03N13W. The ITCZ 
continues westward from 03N13W through 03N25W to 00N41W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring within 200 nm on either side of
the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula 
is dominating the entire Gulf. Moderate to fresh S winds and seas
at 4 to 7 ft are present at the northwest and west-central Gulf. 
Moderate SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail at the southwestern
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 
seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong S return flow in the western Gulf will 
persist through Mon, with winds diminishing again by Mon night. 
Southerly winds will increase to fresh across much of the Gulf Tue
night and Wed ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the
western Gulf Wed night. The front will extend from southeast 
Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico by Thu morning. Fresh N winds are 
likely behind the front. The Popocatepetl volcano in Mexico is in 
a state of unrest and it is possible that ashfall from this 
volcano could limit visibility through tonight over the SW Gulf 
of Mexico from 19N to 20.5N between 93.5W and 96.5W. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front stretches from eastern Hispaniola to
near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border. Moderate to fresh with 
locally strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident up to 
350 nm northwest of the front, and over the south-central basin. 
Gentle to moderate NE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are found at the 
northwestern basin. Light to gentle easterly winds and seas at 3 
to 4 ft prevail for the rest of basin.

For the forecast, the front will extend from the Virgin Islands 
to 15N69W early Mon. Fresh to locally strong N winds west of the 
front will persist through early Mon, including to the south of 
Hispaniola. Fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds will 
pulse in the south- central Caribbean and near the coast of 
Colombia tonight through late this week. Fresh to strong winds 
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras beginning Tue evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on a West Atlantic Gale 
Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N60W through western Puerto Rico. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present up to 160
nm east of the front, mainly N of 23N. A surface trough reaches 
southwestward from west of Bermuda across 31N69W to the northern
Bahamas. To the east, the tail end of a stationary front along 
with a surface trough are triggering scattered showers north of 
28N between 26W and 32W. A shear line curves westward from 28N29W
through 25N44W. Another shear line is analyzed from 28N28W to
22N50W. Divergent winds aloft is enhancing numerous showers and 
isolated thunderstorms near a surface trough along the coast of 
French Guiana and northeastern Brazil. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong westerly winds and
seas at 12 to 15 ft are present behind the cold front, north of 
23N between 58W and 77W. Moderate to fresh NW winds with 7 to 12 
ft seas are noted north of 27N between 77W and the 
Georgia/Florida coast. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 8 to 
12 ft are noted east of the cold front, north of 23N between 48W 
and 57W. At the central Atlantic, moderate to fresh with locally 
strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 9 to 11 ft exist up to 250 nm 
north of the shear line. Strong to near-gale NE winds with 12 to 
13 ft seas are seen near the stationary front north of 28N between
24W and 42W. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 8 to 
11 ft are present north of 18N between 30W-54W. Moderate to fresh 
trades and seas of 5-7 ft ate noted from the northwest African 
coast and 26W, including the Canary Islands. Light to gentle 
southerly and monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for 
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from near 31N55W 
to the Virgin Islands early Mon before becoming stationary and 
weakening. Gale force S winds will continue east of the front and 
north of 27N through tonight, while strong to near gale force W 
winds cover a large area W of the front, with a small area of 
gales. Seas of 13 to 17 ft are expected to continue behind the 
front into this evening before gradually subsiding Mon night 
through Tue night. High pressure will build over the Bahamas, 
spreading a ridge along 26/27N Mon night through Wed. 

$$
ERA