199 
AXNT20 KNHC 150835
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N64W to
Haiti. Gale force winds will continue ahead and behind the front 
today. Seas currently peak at 16 ft on both sides of the front. 
Seas 8 ft or greater are north of 24N and W of 58W. Conditions 
will gradually improve on Mon and Tue, with seas subsiding below 
12 ft by the middle of next week. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to to 06N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N17W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from the equator to near 06N between 20W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted over the far eastern and western Gulf, with light
to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the 
SE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure prevails across the Gulf. Strong 
S return flow will develop in the western Gulf this morning, with 
winds diminishing by Mon night. A cold front is forecast to enter
the western Gulf Wed night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Haiti to the SW Caribbean. Fresh to
strong winds are within 120 nm west of the front, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere west of the front. Moderate to fresh
winds are over the SW Caribbean east of the front, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range west of the
front, and 3-5 ft east of the front. 

For the forecast, the front will extend from the Virgin Islands 
to 15N70W early Mon. Fresh to locally strong N winds west of the 
front will persist today. Fresh to strong northeast to east trade 
winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and near the 
coast of Colombia tonight through late next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a W
Atlantic Gale Warning and the associated cold front.

Aside from the conditions associated to the cold front, which is 
impacting the waters west of 60W, fresh to strong winds prevail 
east of 60W and N of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds are found south
of 20N. Seas are in the 7-11 ft range N of 20N, and 6-8 ft S of
20N. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from near 31N55W 
to the Virgin Islands early Mon before becoming stationary and 
weakening. Strong to gale force winds will prevail on both sides 
of the front early today. The gales will continue E of the front 
through tonight. Seas of 13 to 17 ft are expected to continue 
behind the front before gradually subsiding next week. High 
pressure will build in the wake of the front.

$$
AL