000 AXNT20 KNHC 150500 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jan 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: A cold front is along 31N66W 20N73W. A secondary cold front is about 180 nm to the west of the first cold front, from 22N78W in Cuba northward and northeastward. Expect southerly gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 11 feet to 15 feet, from 28N northward between 62W and 65W, to the east of the first cold front. Expect west to northwest gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 10 feet to 16 feet, from 26N northward between 69W and 78W, on the western side of the second cold front. The gale-force wind conditions will last for the next 36 hours or so. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, is 0.67 in Bermuda. The sea heights range from 9 feet to 16 feet from the second cold front northward and northwestward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 25N northward between 50W and the first cold front. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to 04N20W 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 01S39W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface ridge extends from a 1026mb high pressure center that is in southern Mississippi/SE Louisiana, to the Yucatan Peninsula, to south central Honduras. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the eastern one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds, and some slower, are elsewhere in the area. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 10 feet in much of the eastern half of the Gulf. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the area. High pressure prevails across the Gulf. Strong S return flow will develop in the western Gulf by Sun morning, with the wind speeds diminishing again by Mon night. A cold front is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through NW Haiti, between SW Haiti and Jamaica, to 15N80W, to the SE coast of Nicaragua from 11N to 12N, curving northwestward through Nicaragua, to 14N89W in El Salvador. Broken low level to middle level clouds cover the areas that are from the cold front northward and northwestward. Rainshowers are possible. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from the coast of Honduras northward from Jamaica westward. Those sea heights have been moving through the Yucatan Channel southeastward, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 4 feet in the northern half of the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 5 feet in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from the cold front to the north and northwest. Light to gentle winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Gentle to moderate winds are in the central one-third of the area. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, is 0.63 in Guadeloupe. A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean. The front will extend from the Virgin Islands to 15N70W early Mon. Fresh to locally strong N winds west of the front will persist into Sun. Fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds will pulse in the south central Caribbean Sea and near the coast of Colombia from Sunday through late next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about gale-force wind warnings on either side of the western Atlantic Ocean cold front. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet from 45W eastward. The sea heights elsewhere have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet. A 1041 mb high pressure center is near 41N34W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 60W eastward. A cold front from 31N66W to the Windward Passage will move E and reach from near 31N55W to the Virgin Islands early Mon before becoming stationary and weakening. Strong to gale force winds will prevail on both sides of the front through tonight. The gales will continue E of the front through the remainder of the weekend. Seas of 13 to 17 ft are expected to continue behind the front through the weekend before gradually subsiding next week. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next week. $$ mt/al