000 AXNT20 KNHC 141738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jan 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N69W to the coast of Eastern Cuba near 21N76W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N66W to the coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W. Gale force winds continue in the NW Discussion Waters, N of 28N and W of 76W. Buoy 41010, located 120 nm E of Cape Canaveral, FL, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with gusts to 41 kt. Gales developed this morning ahead of the front, north of 28N between 63W and 66W. Seas currently peak at 15 ft on both sides of the front, and are expected to build to 16 ft by Sunday. Seas 8 ft or greater are north of a line extending from 31N57W to 23N67W to 23N74W to 31N81W. Conditions will gradually improve on Mon and Tue, with seas subsiding below 12 ft by the middle of next week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to the coast of Ilha de Marajo, Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 10W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh N winds prevail in the E Gulf, with moderate N winds in the central Gulf and gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 8-11 ft in the eastern Gulf, 6-8 ft in the central Gulf, and 4-6 ft in the western Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure is building across the Gulf in the wake of a cold front which moved SE of the area yesterday. Strong winds across the eastern Gulf will gradually decrease today into tonight. Seas in the eastern Gulf will diminish below 8 ft by Sun morning. Strong S return flow will develop in the western Gulf by Sun, with winds diminishing again by Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the coast of eastern Cuba near 20N78W to the coast of Honduras near 16N84W. Fresh to strong N winds and 5-8 ft seas prevail north of the front, with 8-9 ft seas noted in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, gentle trades prevail with 4-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia Sun through late next week. A cold front extending from eastern Cuba to western Honduras will move SE through the weekend, reaching from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean by early Sun. The front will continue moving through the NE Caribbean into Mon, while gradually weakening. Fresh to locally strong N winds follow the front. Strong N winds are expected to develop just E of Nicaragua this evening through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a W Atlantic Gale Warning and the associated cold front. Conditions across the W Atlantic are described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. E of 60W, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by subtropical high pressures centered north of the area, with moderate to fresh trades noted across the basin. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, except from 20N to 27N between 22W and 41W where seas are 8-10 ft in ENE swell. A trough extends from 31N40W to 24N44W, accompanied by scattered showers. For the forecast W of 55W, strong to gale force winds will prevail on both sides of the cold front through tonight. The gales will continue E of the front through the remainder of the weekend. Seas will build to 12 to 16 ft behind the front. $$ Mahoney