000 AXNT20 KNHC 122316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 21z, a cold front stretches from near New Orleans, Louisiana to northeast Mexico near 24.5N97.5W. Fresh to near gale force winds are occurring behind the front per recent buoy and platform observations along with 5-8 ft seas. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm east of a pre-frontal trough which extends from near Gulf Shores, Alabama to 28.5N90W. The front will continue eastward and reach from near Sarasota, Florida through the south-central Gulf to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri morning. The pressure gradient between the front and strong high pressure building in behind it will bring near gale to gale force NW-N winds offshore Veracruz, Mexico late tonight through late Fri evening. Seas will build to 7-11 ft behind the front by Fri morning, then 8-12 ft offshore Veracruz by Fri afternoon. Winds and seas will start to diminish from west to east late Fri night into early Sat as the high pressure slides eastward allowing for the gradient to relax. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis stretches across southern Sierra Leone to just offshore at 07N13W. The ITCZ continues from 07N13W through 04N25W to 02N41W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is observed north of the Equator to within 120 nm north of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a developing Gale Warning offshore Veracruz, Mexico. The associated cold front stretches from near New Orleans, Louisiana to northeast Mexico near 24.5N97.5W. High pressure ridging extends from the Atlantic across central Florida to the west-central Gulf ahead of the front. Fresh to strong winds are north of 27N and east of the front, with gentle to moderate return flow elsewhere ahead of the front. Seas are 1-3 ft in the SE Gulf, and mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere ahead of the front, except 5-7 ft in the fresh to strong winds. For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds ahead of the cold front in the NE Gulf will diminish tonight, but a broad area of strong N winds will follow the front tonight through Fri night. Gales will develop offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Fri as described in the Special Features section, along with rough seas. Conditions will improve from west to east Sat. High pressure will quickly pass east across the basin this weekend, with strong southerly return flow developing in the NW Gulf early Sun. Winds will again diminish Mon night. On Tue, moderate to fresh return flow will prevail, increasing to fresh to strong west of about 88W Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad ridging extends north of the basin from the SW N Atlantic to the west-central Gulf of Mexico. A fairly benign weather pattern exists across the basin with mainly clear weather aside from the isolated trade wind shower. Moderate to fresh trades are in the central Caribbean, highest northwest of Colombia, and moderate elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia will occur through Fri, then return Sun night through the middle of next week. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Fri followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. By early Sun this front will stretch from Hispaniola to offshore Nicaragua. On Mon, the front will weaken to a shear line over the NE Caribbean where it will linger into Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N49W to near 23N60W. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the front north of 23N to 40W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are ahead of the front north of 28N reaching eastward to near 43W. To the west, a weak cold front extends from 31N54W to 25N70W. No notable convection is associated with this front except for some possible isolated showers within 90 nm either side of the boundary. Ridging prevails west of the cold front, anchored by a 1023 mb high about midway between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Winds are moderate or weaker north of 20N and west of 50W, except locally fresh across the SE Bahamas and the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas are 3-5 ft in SE swell across this same area, except 5-6 ft between 50W and 55W. Elsewhere, broad ridging extends across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic from a 1032 mb high pressure center north of the area about midway between the Canary Islands and the Azores. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail under a ridge extending from the high through 31N35W to 24N55W, with moderate to fresh trades south of the ridge and west of 30W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail east of 30W due to a tight pressure gradient between the high and troughing along the coast of western Africa. Seas are 6-9 ft in fresh NE swell across this region. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move east and out of the area Fri while the stationary front ahead of it washes out. A stronger cold front will move off NE Florida Fri morning then track east across the area through the weekend. Strong winds are expected behind the front, with seas building to 12-15 ft, with seas of 12 ft or greater reaching all the way to 23N by late Sun night. The front will dissipate to a remnant shearline over the far SE waters early next week with high pressure developing northeast of the northern Bahamas. $$ Lewitsky