000 AXNT20 KNHC 111026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jan 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border into the Atlantic to near 06N18W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues southwestward to 01N30W and to north of Brazil at 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough from the coast of Liberia west to near 16W. Similar activity is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 33W-38W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb high near 26N86W continues to be the main feature influencing the wind and weather regime across the Gulf. A surface trough is over the central Bay of Campeche. No convection is occurring with this as it is surrounded by dry and stable atmospheric conditions. The gradient associated to the high pressure is allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds in the the eastern Bay of Campeche and along the northwest side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are over the NW Gulf per an overnight ASCAT data pass and recent buoy observations from that part of the Gulf. Seas remain rather low there, in the 2-3 ft range. Slightly lower seas of 1-2 ft are elsewhere across the Gulf as seen in a recent altimeter data pass, and as reported by buoy observations. For the forecast, the high pressure will shift toward the western Atlantic as a cold front moves off the coast of Texas by Fri morning. Fresh southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front, which is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas are possible off Veracruz behind the front Fri into early Fri night, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected to develop across the western Gulf on Sun along with building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A rather light pressure gradient is maintaining generally gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds over the basin as noted in overnight scatterometer data passes. Slightly higher northeast to east winds of moderate to fresh speeds are over the far south-central and southwestern Caribbean areas. Seas of 4-5 ft are over the south-central and eastern basin, while lower seas of 2-4 ft are over the remainder of the basin. Isolated showers are confined to the far southwestern Caribbean waters south of about 12N and west of 77W to inland southern Costa Rica and also northern and central Panama. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected across most the basin through tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected at the south-central Caribbean tonight through Fri night as the Bermuda High strengthens a little. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri night, followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat afternoon, and from Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua Sat night into Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from north-central Atlantic southwestward to 31N53W and to near 21N65W. The southern section of the this front is weakening. Fresh to strong southwest winds are N of 30N and east of the front to near 48W, with possible seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly winds are present N of 24N and east of the front to 45W, with seas of 5-7 ft. Convergent southerly flow is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 180 nm east of the front north of 27N. Convergent trades attributed to a fresh trade wind surge are resulting in scattered moderate to isolated convection northeast of French Guiana from 04N to 09N between 42W-51W. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N77W, through the NW and central Bahamas and to near 22N76W. No significant convection is noted with the trough. Another surface trough is analyzed from the southeastern Bahamas southward across the central Dominican Republic. Isolated showers are possible in the vicinity of this trough. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Otherwise, the surface ridge related to the Azores high is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 5-7 ft north of 27N between 25W and 60W. To the west, the gradient associated to the Bermuda High is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft due to an easterly swell north of 20N and west of 60W. Farther southeast from 03N to 27N, moderate to fresh northeast east trade winds, with seas in the range of 7-10 ft due to primarily a northeast to east swell are present between the Africa coast and 45W. Gentle to moderate east to southeast trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft are from 06N to 27N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle south to southwest winds, with seas of 3-5 ft due to a southerly swell pretty much continue over the remainder of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 28N55W to 22N64W early this evening and continue to weaken as it shifts E of the area late Thu. High pressure will follow in behind the front. A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. As the front moves eastward across the forecast waters, expect increasing winds and building seas. Fresh to strong winds are forecast on either side of the front during the upcoming weekend. These winds could reach minimal gale force across the waters N of 29N late Sat into early on Sun. Seas of 12-15 ft are expected with the strongest winds NE of the Bahamas. $$ Aguirre