000 AXNT20 KNHC 101734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone and extends about 60 nm offshore to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W southwestward to 01N30W, along 01N to near 45W. No significant convection is noted near the monsoon trough or ITCZ at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends south-southwest from a 1022 mb high over the SE U.S. states. Both buoy observations and ASCAT data passes indicate that winds across a majority of the basin are of light to gentle speeds and in an anticyclonic fashion around the ridge. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are within the Straits of Florida, and moderate E winds are likely east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Buoy observations are reporting relatively low seas in the range of 1-3 ft, with the exception of slightly higher seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through Thu morning, at which time a strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front, which is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas are possible off Veracruz behind the front by Fri, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient across the Caribbean sea has weakened, allowing for gentle to moderate breezes across the basin. Additionally, an upper-level ridge over the central Caribbean sea is helping maintain dry and tranquil conditions. The exception is offshore NE Colombia, where locally fresh winds and 5 ft seas were recently recorded. Seas east of 70W are 3 to 5 ft, noted in recent buoy and altimeter data, while 2 to 4 ft seas prevail west of 70W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected across most of the basin through Wed as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will increase to between moderate and fresh over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed through late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow a cold front moving into the northwestern Caribbean late Fri. This front will reach from Hispaniola to the southwestern Caribbean by Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N60W to the southern Bahamas near 21N70W. Convergent southerly flow is allowing for a line of thunderstorms about 180 nm ahead of the front north of 28N, while scattered showers and thunderstorms remain ahead of the boundary south of 28N to the Caribbean Islands. A recent scatterometer pass captured strong to near gale force S-SW winds within the area of thunderstorms north of 25N. Fresh NW winds are behind the cold front, north of 29N and east of 68W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. High pressure filling in behind the front is allowing for tranquil conditions and gentle anticyclonic flow for the remainder of the western Atlantic with 2 to 4 ft seas. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of 1033 mb high pressure centered SE of the Azores Islands, extending a ridge to the northern Lesser Antilles. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the deeper tropics supports moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N and east of 60W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Locally strong trade winds were captured by an earlier scatterometer pass from 15N to 20N between 41W and 48W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are noted north of 25N. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 29N55W to 21N67W by Wed morning. A reinforcing cold front will move into the region Wed, merge with the previous front, then become stationary and weaken from 27N55W to 20N65W by Thu morning and dissipate by Thu night. A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. Winds ahead of the front may briefly gust to gale-force N of 29N on Fri, while strong W to NW winds will follow the front that is forecast to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by early Sat and from near 31N65W to 25N68W and to the Dominican Republic by late Sat night. Expect building seas of 13 or 14 ft first ahead of the front late Sat into Sun, then behind the front on Sun. $$ Mora