000
AXNT20 KNHC 101033
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the Sierra 
Leone/Liberia border, and extends southwestward to 02N21W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the 
ITCZ and continues to 02N30W and to east of Amapa State, Brazil at
04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of Liberia 
from 01N to 03N between 09W-15W, and within 30 nm of ITCZ between 
25W-30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

A surface ridge extends south-southwest from a 1022 mb high over 
Mississippi to the south-central Gulf. Both buoy observations and 
partial ASCAT data passes indicate that winds across the basin 
are of light to gentle speeds, and in an anticyclonic fashion 
around the ridge. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are along and
just offshore the coast of northwestern Cuba, and west from there
to the Yucatan Channel. The buoy observations are reporting 
relatively low seas in the range of 1-3 ft, with the exception of 
slightly higher seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters 
through Thu morning, at which time a strong cold front is forecast
to emerge off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly return flow is 
expected ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building 
seas will follow the front forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, 
Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and 
rough seas are possible off Veracruz behind the front by Fri, with
fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will 
diminish into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between east-central Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressure in the central and eastern Caribbean 
sections is allowing for moderate to locally fresh trade winds 
and seas of 4-6 ft to exist in the south-central and eastern 
sections of the sea. Gentle to moderate northeast to northeast 
to east trade winds and lower seas of 2-4 ft seas prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected 
across most of the basin through Wed as the high pressure weakens
and shifts eastward. Winds will increase to between moderate and 
fresh over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed 
through late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. 
Looking ahead, fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow a cold 
front moving into the northwestern Caribbean late Fri. This front
will reach from Hispaniola to the southwestern Caribbean by Sat 
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches southwestward from just east of Bermuda 
to 31N67W, to the central Bahamas and begins to just north of 
central Cuba. An overnight ASCAT data pass suggested that fresh
to strong southwest winds are east of the front to 62W and north
of 30N. Fresh to strong northwest winds are west of the front to 
69W and north of 30N. Seas of 6-8 ft are associated to the winds 
on both side of the front. Convergent southerly low-level to 
surface winds east and southeast of the front are resulting in a 
large area of scattered showers and thunderstorms that is noted 
from 25N to 31N between 58W-66W, and from 21N to 25N between 
65W-70W. Upper-level diffluence over this area is helping to 
further sustain the shower and thunderstorm activity. A surface 
trough extends from near 24N72W to the eastern tip of Cuba. No 
significant convection is occurring with this feature. A far 
eastern Atlantic cold front is weakening along a position from 
near 31N38W to 29N42W, where it transitions to a dissipating 
stationary front to 27N50W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east 
winds are along and within 120 nm northwest of the front. Seas 
northwest of the front are 5-8 ft due to a long-period NW swell.
Scattered to broken low clouds, with possible isolated showers 
are along and within about 60-90 nm of the front. Please refer to 
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the 
Atlantic Basin.

Farther south, the gradient between high pressure over the
eastern Atlantic and lower pressure south of 15N and east of
58W is maintaining moderate to fresh northeast to northeast to
east trade winds along with seas in the range of 7-9 ft to 
the southeast of a line from 24N35W to 20N42W to 18N50W and 
to 07N55W. These conditions are expected to change little through
the next 48 hours. Seas may peak at 10 ft within the next 48 
hours. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of the range 4-6 
ft remain over the rest of the Atlantic basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned first cold front 
is forecast to reach from near 31N62W to the southeastern Bahamas
this morning, and from 29N55W to 21N70W by this evening. A 
reinforcing cold front will move into the region Wed, merge with 
the aforementioned front, and then stall and dissipate from 31N55W
to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Looking ahead, increasing winds and 
seas will accompany a strong cold front that will move off the 
northeast Florida coast early Fri. Gale force winds may briefly 
occur ahead of the front on Fri, while strong W to NW winds will 
occur behind the front that is forecast to reach from near Bermuda
to central Cuba by early Sat. This front should reach from near 
31N65W through 25N68W to Hispaniola by late Sat night. Expect seas
to build and peak near 12 ft, north and northeast of the Bahamas 
Sat and Sat night.

$$
Aguirre